Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japan crisis, what now for the equity market?

With Japan nuclear crisis on the line, Mid east and Arab's protests... what's the future for stocks?
If you look at all these issues, risk aversion is high and investors are clearly worried about the worst with regards to the nuclear crisis.
So my take is this,...
1) Japan will be successful in containing the nuclear plants from further meltdown.
2) Mid east and Arab unrest will fizzle out over time as Bahrain steps up the crack down and honestly we should discount Libya from the equation as the impact on oil is negligible.
3) Overall world economy is on the recovery and latest data in Q1 2011 is very positive and with the imminent reconstruction of Japan, which will contribute to the demand of natural resources and greatly benefit the economy particular countries that exports to Japan...

Therefore, it's a buy on equity....

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