Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Impact of Mid East and Arab unrest on world equity market...

Well, many after seeing today's decline in their holdings are sure to feel confuse now that even with the relatively stabilize oil price due to Opec commit to fill in the gap left by Libyan oil output disruption, good corporate earning results, US QE2, etc.... now many will ask where's the fucking money? All of the sudden people just loose faith in the economic recovery story even after many convincing data worldwide?

Let's be honest, even without the crisis in Libya the oil supply will be trailing the demand due to the economic growth and increasing consumption worldwide... almost 90% of the analysts agree that we should long the market for 2011.... and it will hit all time high for Asia's stock markets...
So today's situation seems rather at odd eh?...

Take Malaysia for example...well, you have to know that the election in Sarawak is looming and that tells you the gov needs cash... right and those money will come from the listed GLCs....
check the shareholding changes of late and you'll see >80% of the gov related party is selling...

Also, many are thinking after the panic selling last week things are going to get better... well unfortunately its not so direct.... its going to likely get worst before it gets better...
Buying now may not be as bad as some may think but if you can buy lower(if it happens) then its great but it takes more than science to guarantee that we buy at the lowest possible... While it may not be the best, its ok to start buying selectively... my prediction is the worst KLCI will hit is probably 1453 points and bear in mind this index is only on the 30 giant stocks in the malaysian market.... the rest is not represented.

You think about it...

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