New high... so how?...

Well, stock markets in Asia are going to hit new high and good sentiments are everywhere... stocks are amazing giving returns to investors who believe in equity compared to the pathetic FD rates in the banks.... anyway, this is the time when people will start to feel the good vibes about stock market and many are often tempted to join the stock market rallyor at least try to earn some easy money for some people... bear in mind that when I say join it means putting more money into the market in hope of better return.

Now this is the right time for the existing people who already have a position in the stock market to lock in their gain and liquidate stocks to realize their profit. We have to be objective and be aware of our investment goal. Don't get carried away with greed as that is human's greatest enemy! Remember, things have reached the bottom and are picking up but is the consumer spending really picking up at equal rates? Do we see company revenue projection beginning to balloon drastically? Some sectors (e.g. service and electronics) especially those with huge customer in China probably yes,... but majority are in fact merely started to recover and the situation is really not that optimistic yet.

Don't get carried away with positive news without conducting a reality check yourself... its difficult to earn 30-50% per quarter on a consistent basis, but its very easy to lose that amount in a quarter of the time frame.... so always remember for every winning bet, there is someone losing on the other end... make sure you don't become a santa claus for this coming festive season... :)
Now you have been warn... its your choice to make the decision.... :)

What's brewing behind the recovering economy of Malaysia...

This piece of news will determine whether the stock market will crash or continue to recover...
Imagine the how foreign investors would view this country... Malaysia might be labelled the most corrupted country if the PKFZ scandal ended up with the Malaysian leaders being indicted.
http://www.mysinchew.com/node/28568

I believe the people of Malaysia would support the truth as well, let's faced it now then let those unscrupulous leaders continue to rob Malaysians of their money... if this continue, don't be surprise one day this country is bankcrupt. Then all your hard earn money(especially those invested in stocks) and assets will be all gone...

Grow up or face extinction...

Comments from a foreign writer Bryant on Mahathir's article : Kaki dalam Kasut where he says Chinese is the real master of Malaysia .
This article was written without fear or favour, and it is up to us to digest individually the truth of the matter, especially for all Malaysians (irrespective of race, colour, creed or religion)..........thanks to Alan Tan for sharing.

The highly respected Tun,
China is coming up, India is coming up, Vietnam is coming up and now even Russia is on the rise. In this flat world that is all wired up and regardless whether we are Malaysian Malay, Chinese or Indian, and if Malaysia does not progress, all of us would become history of this country! Without the Malay, Chinese could not do well in the country and without the Chinese, Malay would not do well. Both have to work together to bring up Malaysia and mitigate the ascute impact that is being brought about by the globalisation. For me, a true leader is someone who has the foresight that not only focus on one particular group in the country but take care of the future of everyone. A good leader is someone who know what is the biggest threat the country is facing and direct the people to fight off the threat. A leader is also someone who is impartial that has the ability to promote harmony in the country for a long period of time.
UMNO is a political looser that leads the country to nowhere. They do not understand what is going on the outside world. They have no clue where Malaysia will be in the next 30 years. With the 3 new superpowers, i.e Indian, China and Russia standing tall and high together with USA and the Europe Union, they do not know what kind of world it would be and how Malaysia is going to compete and share the ever smaller slice of cake of the world economy. They only know how to get the Malays to fight with other Non-Malay on tiny issues within Malaysia , while the two races know jolly well that the issues they are fighting are trivial and is totally self-satisfying. UMNO does not give a damn to how the poor Malay is going to live in the future and they do not care about the real benefits of the poor Malays. They only want the votes from them. The NEP is a good evidence on how they benefit the cronies, instead of the poor Malay. Despite all their despicable acts they are still in the power.
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The highly respected Tun,
As you are aware, the Malays control the rights to all the lands and all other natural resources in this country. They control all government institutions, GLC and State owned companies. The Malays dominate the lawmaking process in Malaysia ; The Malays control the decision making process in formulating the economy policies. The Malays own the largest national assets and the Malays are given shares in the public listed companies for free. The Malays have also been given all kind of priorities when it comes to buying properties, awarding of public contracts, tertiary education opportunities, awarding of scholarships and even getting a job in government departments. With all these privileges and rights enjoyed by the Malays, you are saying nothing has been done enough to help the Malays to catch up with other races, mainly the Chinese. Then what else should Malaysia do to satisfy the Malays? Did the Chinese seize or rob anything away from the Malays or all their wealth was a result of their hard work? If it is all due to their hard work, why do you say it is unfair? I don't quite get your point here.
May I humbly ask you what do you expect the Chinese to do if your so-called NEP did not achieve the desired result? Would the Malays be happy if the ethnic Chinese in this country do any of the followings:
- surrender their assets and hard earned money to the Malays unconditionally;- not to engage in any business activities;- not to score As in all sort of examinations;- not to make money that is more than the Malays are earning;- not to advance to higher education; or- renounce their citizenships and go back to China or migrate to some other countries?
I am a foreigner but I am surprised that your intention is to divide your own country. I think you are mainly targeting the Chinese. Frankly, tell us, what do you expect the Chinese to do in order to achieve what is so called "equality" meant by you?
Tun, after all these criticism you have against the present government, I feel that you are starting to loose your rationality on your arguments. You have run out of good reasons to convince us. I guess it could be due to your accumulating jealousy of Mr Lee Kuan Yew, your former counterpart in Singapore . But reality is always hard to accept. No matter how, you have to accept the fact that he is regarded the Father of Singapore but you are not regarded the Father of Malaysia; you have to accept the fact that Mr Lee is able to influence the government of Singapore until he the day he dies but you have not been able to influence the government from the moment you stepped down as PM. You must also accept the fact that he is still very popular on the world stage and a leader respected by many but you are not quite. Because of these jealousies, you are starting to accumulate imbalances in yourself that lead you to embark on a series of action to attack your successors. It is very obvious that you are not happy when your successors are more popular than you. Is there any good of doing that? What is your intention? Can't you take it easy? During your time, you criticised most of the developed countries especially the Western Countries out of jealousy and after stepping down as PM you criticise every single soul remained in the cabinet for not listening to you. When will you ever stop criticising any people? Can't you respect the decision of others?
Back to your recent blog, is there anything wrong with Chinese in this country? Did they seize or rob the money away from the Malays? Did they have the ability to come out with any policies to marginalise the Malays? Did they dominate the lawmaking process of this country? Did they formulate the economy policies in this country? Did they control the government departments in this country? Did they control the state owned companies and GLC in this country? Did they control the country's largest oil companies and banks? You know the answer right? Malays are the one who dominate the the lawmaking process of this country; Malays are the one that formulate the economy policies in this country that favours the Malays. Malays are the ones that control the government departments, state owned companies and GLC. Malays are the one the control the funds in this country. Malays are also the ones that control the largest oil companies and banking industry in this country. With all these rights enjoyed by the Malays, what else do you want the Chinese to do? Surrender their houses and savings and their wealth that they earned with their hard work to the Malays, for no reason? or ask all the Chinese to renounce their citizenship and go back to China ? Have you ever thought of after 30 years of implementing NEP, why it does not achieve the desired result? Don't forget under the NEP there are a series of policies that favors the Malays. The obvious ones would be the distributions of APs and awarding of contracts. If with all these policies, it still dose not give the Malay what they want, what else do you want the Chinese to do? Is the Chinese to be blamed because they are too hard working? Or the Malays to be blamed because they do not treasure the opportunities given? You know very well the NEP has been misused and it only benefits the cronies. So if you have designed NEP to only benefits the cronies, please don't say it is the problem of Chinese that NEP does not achieve its result. It has nothing to do with the Chinese but NEP and the Malay themselves.
This is a globalised world, Chinese and Malays should not be fighting against each other because Malaysia is competing with other countries. China used to be backward and lagging behind Malaysia but now they have caught up and have even surpassed Malaysia . Can we ask them to slow down their development? If they refuse to listen can we make a complaint to the United Nation that China is developing too fast and this is very unfair to Malaysia, which adapts a more a passive approach? Who gives you the right to prevent others from progressing? Who you think you are? This is a flat world (Obviously Tun did not read the book named "The World is Flat"). Don't be so narrow minded to only focus on the Chinese or Malay in Malaysia . We should now look at the world as a flat world. If Malaysia does not progress, no matter we are Malay or Chinese, we would be extinct one day!
Have a God-blessed day.

E&O bullish engulf...

Will it break the RM1.35-1.36 resistance level? I believe there is a very bright chance that this will happen as long as the Chinese and US economies does not create a big concern about comsumer spending and the recovery rate of the world economy....

We're on the right track and speed towards economic recovery in my opinion and what we're going to see in the future is going to be a typical recovery trend... there is really no reason to be alarm just because some analysts post some comments but rather do your own analysis and gauge it yourself... breaking the RM1.56 in the near term is very possbile... stay alert on this one.

Follow up on IJMLand...

This is an assessment of Toebear's earlier post on IJMLand that was published in May'09... At that time, it was trading at ~RM1.45 for the mother and RM0.45 for its warrant and the call is to buy its mother and even better is to buy the warrant. Today, the stock has since risen to RM1.83 and it warrant has reached a high of RM0.70 and that is more than 25% return for investing in mother share and more than 50% return for warrant. What a magnificent gain in a quarter!!!
That's why I like this blog........ :) while it may not have many posts, every posts it put up is worthy of every second I spent reading it.

keep it up Toebear...

E&O rally over?

Well, we have seen E&O make significant come back in the month of Aug alone rising close to 25% from its level in early Aug. That's a spectacular return of investment for many who have this stock and certainly made many of them feel good.

With good response to its recent property launch, E&O is set to regain its glory days in the past.

While you may have a different opinion, I believe this stock will be RM2 at least come Jan 2010.

Having said so, its good to also take a look at it's warrants which will expire in somewhere in May 2011. With a strike price o RM1, this warrant is very much in money and will likely remain so until it expires... For every 2 sen the mother share gain, the warrant is set to gain 1.5 sen and I expect it to continue deep into Q4 2010.

Question now is has the run of this stock come to a halt? will it start to profit take its way down to below RM1? I think it is highly unlikely.... I feel there is still a final hurdle before we see the bear setting in... well, we'll see.... :)

BJTOTO...

With quite an amount of news focusing mostly number forecasting companies such as MPHB (Magnum), BJToto, Tanjong via PMP.... one thing to note is the gov is not shy to reveal to public that they are in need of cash and that the fastest and the best way to increase its revenue is through sin tax mainly gaming or alternatively you can also call it gambling. While that is a separate issue, my main reason of this post is to highlight the potential short term movement for these companies...

Favourite to outperform the rest is still BJtoto... why, mainly because of its wide variety of games.... and its mega jackpots.... the rest are conventional 4D companies.... while magnum may introduce new games perhaps a jackpot type of game, it will take while before people starts to feel the ummph of the game and start buying on a consistent basis.... while excitement will be there, what matters most is the to get the volume to sustain and bjtoto has the edge and judging by the number of people frequenting their outlets and the market share, it certainly won't be affected eventhough the remaining 2 operators start to introduce more varieties to their current offerings.

Anyway with the huge dividend episode just went by, bjtoto is definitely set to regain its stock price after the adjustment... with today's closing, the stock certainly looks very positive to have a short term run up to RM4.68 at least.... while this is probable, do not that it will have to take place relatively fast before the stock market adjustment happens... so traders, may have to watch closely. On the long run, i expect bjtoto to hit past its Q1'08 high.

The Ten Commandments

The Trader's Ten Commandments

We all know that losing money is a sin. It means you have done what you should not have done and you have left undone what you should have done. In such event, you must repent and in future obey the rules. Below are the ten rules I find interesting and very much relates to my personal guidelines and therefore I feel they live up to be called the ten commandments. The first rule is very much associated to Warren Buffet. :) Enjoy...

1) Thou shalt not lose any money - chances are you won't get it back.
2) Dont risk money when you do not have to - you can beat the market by not being in the market all the time. Consistently strive to improve the risk-return ratio.
3) You can beat any index or stocks by owning only a part of it - Its easier to idenfity the average than to spot the best.
4) When you do invest, only go for those with >50% probability even though it is not a certain outcome.
5) If you hold a position that is going wrong, cut it - always have an exit point ready and stick to it.
6) At all times, only go for strongest or relative strength trends or short only the weakest. - If unsure, dont trade.
7) Adopt a money management system that dynamically cut out losses, exploits an up trend and changes in unit size with respect to capital availability.
8) Always diversify - be reasonable as you don't want to end up having too much to manage.
9) Use methods with the lowest possible cost to trade - makes a good system better
10) Setup your affaird in a way that eliminates if not minimizes your tax burden - optimizes the system.

Courtesy of David Keller
"Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis"

KLCI prediction....

Well, the KLCI market has been on the uptrend since mid of Mar'09 and has never look back since... the bull has been charging like there is no tomorrow since then and even though it hit some bumpy ride around June... that never really give it any problem to pull the CI into a higher territory. In any case, I would like to believe that the bear is still alive and has always been there so don't let the market fool you.

A ~36.5% gain in a quarter is amazing and certainly has put alot of feel good feeling about the market... however, Q3 is already here and traditionally Q3 tend to be a little soft and are usually the profit taking period. So those who have gain, its time to lock the gain and get the cold hard cash stored in your piggy bank.... opprtunities should be abundant for us to reload into the market for next round of gain... and when that happens, its going to be a big gain....

I'm putting here a copy of what my personal simulation model gave for the next 6 months.

Trade or fade...?

While the PM has just announced a couple of measures attract foreign investment, the impact on stock market is nothing significant to remember by....

questions is everywhere whether now is the time to buy or perhaps wait a little longer for it to consolidate.. I wish someone can tell us that but lets face it, everyone has its own goal and in stock market, the base to trading is the different perception of value among investors.

If everyone share the same opinion, who's gonna buy from or sell to you? Another way of looking at it is, under normal circumstances where do you wanna position yourself?

anyway, back on the stock market in Malaysia its pretty much sad case of lack of liquidity.... had the govenment allow investors to short the market, it would be a different scenario...based on the current situation, I would think its best to sell and re-enter again.... few stocks that is worth stalking are probably, sapcres, ijmland, e&o, leader, genting, genm, uemland, saag, sunway.

In a nut shell, what I'm betting for the next few weeks starting from today is that things are gonna head south... so be prepared.. ;)

What's the status.......?

Are we seeing a correction today?, certainly yes, from my perspective. Lack of news and direction forces investors to dump shares and lock in profits from recent run up. Well, from the data it seems both retailers and institutional investors are equally caught in the run up from ringgit standpoint.

Anyway, its better for the CI to take a break and build a new base before heading to the next level....

100-250% gain since end of last year is too much to keep as paper value and really its nothing to be surprised of that the CI retreated... traders need a break too.... well, get your profit and go for a vacation locally(keep your cash in the local market.. :))....+ there's H1N1 risks to board a plane...

so sit back reposition your portfolio and reidentify your targets for next phase of bull run.

Note:

Whether its bull or bear it all goes back to investor themselves that is their believe in the market value. It doesn't matter what you (as an individual) believe, its what the majority of the people out there believe that matters.... afterall, we just wanted to be on the right side at the right time.

SAAG

One of my favourite...SAAG remains relatively attractive given its price and business nature....

cheap and remains a good buy for a return of at least 12% from my forecast in the next 9 months....

Another property stock I have to mention here is E&O since I personally owns this stock for a while now...and a couple of my friends are questioning why I don't talk about it..... well, we just can't have it all.... however, since they wants some comments, here goes....

I believe this stock is set to rise again to challenge its recent high of RM0.93 in a short run .... this is pure from trading standpoint the chart trend remains well supported at RM0.75 ... so I am of the opinion, the stock will challenge the RM1 mark in a quarter or two.... while some may think its conflict of interest for me to comment on E&O, and I normally don't comment on counters that I just bought.... because I have been accumulating E&O for a while now, that's why I don't wanna talk about it.

Anyway, feel free to comment.... afterall, you get to see it for yourself whether the claims I made here are true or not....

IJMLAND....

Well, its been a while since I blogged about anything due to the self declared holiday to complete a personal project in life..... Thank God its completed....Anyway, many of us is well aware of the recent run up of KLCI from 850 all the way to 1028... and some people I know told me that they made some during this recovery but the next question will be what the impending market will look like and what stock should be traded to get the high value return?... As a typical trader, I can say there are many stocks to dump your money in... but the best counter to me is still the property counter especially the one who has the highest exposure to the northerm region mainly Penang island.... mainly because of the 2nd bridge potential and the purchasing power of the people in the state.

There are a few names to mention. SP Setia, IJMland, Mah Sing. From the info I have, I find IJMLand as the best bet for the highest return in the next coming 1 year. A few reason though, strategic project plan, quality product, exceptional brand image, proven track record and most of all, stock price is affordable and the number of floating shares are limited not until IJM Corp trim their holding further to below 65%.

Recent rally in the market has caused the stock price to double its value taking yesterday's closing price as end price and I believe while this stock has more potential and will make it to the RM2 ringgit mark in a year time.... as we see the market consolidate, its time for traders to catch a cheap entry price.... for those who has higher risk appetite, IJMLand-WA is a much better tool for trading.... long this stock and reap a big gain in the future....

Malaysian government a laughing stock yet again!

Well, those who follow the news of this bolehland must be shaking their heads and for investors wannabe I believe this is a clear signal for them to take a step back and think of somewhere else more stable than this country.

First, BN is taking the support of 3 independent candidates or "frogs" to toppple the Pakatan Rakyat government even though knowing clearly that 2 of the frogs are currently being investigated for corruption which involves bribes and accepting sexual favours from prostitutes for a land project amounting to RM180mil.

Questions is...

1) Why would the 2 cross over to support BN? What objective? What benefit and etc...

The answer is money, money and money... anything else is fucking bullshit.

2) Would the cross over to BN gives the people of Perak state a better development and welfare compared to Pakatan? (Remember the people voted for Pakatan to be the government)

3) How could 2 elected candidates went for election as a candidate of party A and then after that jump to another party to form another government??... yet the BN politicans in this country calls this democracy and is inline with the constitution?? Hypothetically speaking... if you buy a can of longan and when you reach home, you noticed the can of longan just turn into a can of lychee? What the fuck!?...

If BN wants to deny using money to induce these so call people representatives to turn into frog and cross over to support them, they are just being silly...

While the people of Perak states are violated of their rights.... BN stand to lose even more for...

These are the negative side...

1) People now believe that the Perak govenment is bought over by dumping people's tax money to these 3 representatives to buy them over.

2) The people of Malaysia will have a stronger confirmation that corruption exist to the very top of this country's leadership..... its a no brainer

3) The next election to come, BN is very likely be defeated.

4) At current economic situation, instead of doing what's necessary to help the people of this country, the leaders in the government are wasting resources and time for personal gain at the people's expense.

I pay huge tax for every ringgit of what I make in this country you bastards!!!!....

May God strikes those involved in stealing the people's right, tax money and those who earn's haram income for neglecting their job as elected leaders, since we pay them large amount of money to run the country to HELL!!!.... May God's fury come down upon these bastards real soon.

Let us all pray....