DRBHCOM's spectacular run!

DRBHCOM just continue to rise with both local institution and retailers loading up on the stock in anticipation of equity market recovery and future growth story for the conglomerate.... Latest news of DRBHCOM's bid for POS stake from khazanah is not a surprise... on offer price alone, DRBHCOM is certainly one of the favourite to clinch the deal. Whether the deal will benefit DRB in the long run? the answer is YES. Strategically the stake will enable DRBHCOM to "unlock" more values.... not surprising if DRBHCOM will embark on more value unlocking activities in the future given the positive sentiment on the equity market...

Like I said, its management has done a great job since the turn over and I expect the stock to rise further and hover at probably ~RM2.50 before going further depending on the market condition and impending news and announcement.
Congratulations to those who follow and bought earlier... :)
Stellar ROI indeed!!!

YTLLand... a buy

The launch of The Capers was rather expected, all the condominium tower units were sold out. Currently, the commercial offerings include the recently completed d7 and soon-to-be completed d6 boutique offices project. While two others, d2 and d5, will be launched soon... Like I said, the stock is poised to gain much from all the future projects in line for launch.

Whether the MRT is going to take off or not, this stock is going to go beyond RM2.30 soon...

Bull in timber related stocks...

Today Taann, Jtiasa, WTK, Lingui, Mieco all moved up pretty well.... decent gain in anticipation of the reconstruction of Japan. Realistically, these companies will benefit for sure but the question will be when will the bottomline be reflected by the increase in demand?
No doubt most of these companies are relatively stable... these run up are very sentimental and are very ahead of fundamental in my opinion. For those who managed to jump in prior to today should consider taking profits off the table....
There is 99% the reconstruction will start(likely in 2H) but there is a 1% chance it might not happen so soon should the nuclear disaster situation worsen or in case there is more post quake disaster that follows... we never know.

DRBHCOM on the rise...

This company certainly is one of the best in recovery of the equity market and has been attracting steady interest from investors... Well with today's market performance, many who bought in the past may have started to lock in the gain... its perfectly alright if you want to do so....
Will the stock continue to climb? Likely, the large seller at RM2.15 is merely a small bump... will pass with ease soon... :)
In summary, great company with great return and more to come...

KLCI target by Q3'11....

Well, Japan is making very good progress and Bahrain is dead serious in addressing the problem its people are facing despite the controversial demolition of the pearl square landmark... perhaps they want to apply the not in sight not in mind concept...:p
Anyway, world equity will start picking up from here in my opinion... KLCI is no excuse as well, KLCI target by Q3 is 1625 points... let it ride...

Japan crisis, what now for the equity market?

With Japan nuclear crisis on the line, Mid east and Arab's protests... what's the future for stocks?
If you look at all these issues, risk aversion is high and investors are clearly worried about the worst with regards to the nuclear crisis.
So my take is this,...
1) Japan will be successful in containing the nuclear plants from further meltdown.
2) Mid east and Arab unrest will fizzle out over time as Bahrain steps up the crack down and honestly we should discount Libya from the equation as the impact on oil is negligible.
3) Overall world economy is on the recovery and latest data in Q1 2011 is very positive and with the imminent reconstruction of Japan, which will contribute to the demand of natural resources and greatly benefit the economy particular countries that exports to Japan...

Therefore, it's a buy on equity....

Japan's earthquakes and nuclear disaster...

This is an unfortunate period for many people in the world especially those living in Japan and some of them who have their lives thorn apart overnight... the earthquakes damage were well contained but the damages brought by the tsunami were devastating.... to make things worst, the nuclear reactors are exploding 1-by-1. With the northeast wind blowing strongly, it will make the radiation spread faster than what the specialist can anticipate... Its sad to say that things are going to get worst for Japan from here... I do hope they are not hit by another earthquakes (up to half the magnitute of the first one) else, i think it will take decades for Japan to rebuild for sure....

How does this impact the economy? Well, Japan stock market has certainly shows the true pciture today by dropping more than 14% on top of the first trading day (post quake) loss of 6.2%. Oil prices continue to drop and world wide equity market continue to be sold down in view of the great uncertainty surrounding the world today. Many people even talked about the end of the world and how all these are actually signs before the ruptures.... I personally think there is a correlation to that.

Bear in mind that should the situation in Japan gets worst, the world economy will too and certainly the recovery in the US will be affected and this will cause a ripple effect throughout the rest of the world.... KLCI is no exception, you can have all the ETPs with billions of projects being rolled out but if the economic state of the world is in a down turn, not even a "100bil" MRT project will keep the optimism alive.

Worst case, if the nuclear crisis in Japan escalated higher then we'll likely see the stock market taking a plunge of a record size...
Investors should adopt the wait and see strategy before buying in bulk... there are many side effect of this crisis this time...

Japan

Japan

SPSETIA-WB a bargain...

Well, I have to bring this up.... SPSetia, target price beyond RM7.60 but its warrant is only RM1.54 which translate to a discount of 15% at least... why is that so?
Now is this a situation of market efficiency issue or is there something in the pipeline about SPsetia that the public are not aware of which keeps the warrant from matching its worth?

If you are familiar with the industry, some people are starting to say the property market is cooling down with the high oil price and rising inflation in the emerging market and blah blah...
hey, the housing market might not be able to distance itself from the risk aversion the the general public may have due to the unrest in mid east and Arab region... but the growth we see in the world economy in general is very much intact and US in particular is very encouraging...
today we say the world economy recovery risk being put to halt due to the above issues, tomorrow things may change... perhaps Ghaddafi finally relented and step down and Arab manage to reverse the dissatisfaction of its people by offering cash distribution and more job creation as well as wealth sharing....

My point is, we're on track to grow and equity is certainly the better way to grow your money if not the best bet... SPsetia will certainly lead the recovery of the KLCI... hence at 2013 expiry, its warrant certainly have future (lots of it) in my opinion.

On a separate note, DRBHCOM is moving up.... :) Good job to those who bought in during the low.... this is just the beginning...

Impact of Mid East and Arab unrest on world equity market...

Well, many after seeing today's decline in their holdings are sure to feel confuse now that even with the relatively stabilize oil price due to Opec commit to fill in the gap left by Libyan oil output disruption, good corporate earning results, US QE2, etc.... now many will ask where's the fucking money? All of the sudden people just loose faith in the economic recovery story even after many convincing data worldwide?

Let's be honest, even without the crisis in Libya the oil supply will be trailing the demand due to the economic growth and increasing consumption worldwide... almost 90% of the analysts agree that we should long the market for 2011.... and it will hit all time high for Asia's stock markets...
So today's situation seems rather at odd eh?...

Take Malaysia for example...well, you have to know that the election in Sarawak is looming and that tells you the gov needs cash... right and those money will come from the listed GLCs....
check the shareholding changes of late and you'll see >80% of the gov related party is selling...

Also, many are thinking after the panic selling last week things are going to get better... well unfortunately its not so direct.... its going to likely get worst before it gets better...
Buying now may not be as bad as some may think but if you can buy lower(if it happens) then its great but it takes more than science to guarantee that we buy at the lowest possible... While it may not be the best, its ok to start buying selectively... my prediction is the worst KLCI will hit is probably 1453 points and bear in mind this index is only on the 30 giant stocks in the malaysian market.... the rest is not represented.

You think about it...