Thursday, August 11, 2011

So what now?...




The US Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates at the current level for the next 2 years.... US market reacted only to give up the gains the next day... With the ECB is buying Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to address the concern on the European sovereign debt issue,US economy is apparently slowing down...

With so much cash in the market, where do these money needs to go? Treasury bonds yield lesser than peanuts, commodity prices are dropping...stock market have suffered major selloff of late.... so what? buy gold? Well, may not be a bad thing but not a preferred. Why?

Simple, we need to understand what's the main issue here.

1) US debt problem is not new, the situation in US does not gets worse only of late.

2) Neither is Euro debt problem, so what if banks starts to fail? let them be. only the strong survives

3) Asia's economy is relatively strong and the next decade and beyond it will be Asia led by China and India.

4) Asian currency will rise with the fall of US dollar (continuous quantitative easing)

5) The problem today is 80% confidence crisis, 20% real financial problem.


What if France lose its AAA rating? - not surprising since US "lost" it too. Impact will be negligible. What if French banks incur major lost from the exposure to the euro governement debts? The damage is already done... Germany needs to take lead and work out the revamp to lead Europe out of the woods. I just don't think Italy will fall as many have feared.


The hedge funds and foreign institution funds need to pay dividend and where else to park their money to work for them if not Asia? For every major selloff like the one we've seen in the last few days, things are bound to recover at least 30% in the next 9 months or so.... so what's your take? I'm a buyer.





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