Monday, November 8, 2010

QE2, what's the impact...

Well, USD1.7trillion and it is still not enough.... what makes the Fed thinks USD600bil will do the job? Simple, the Fed just wanted to debase the dollar and narrow the gap between the China Yuan and the USD.

The consequences of this QE2 is obviously going to cause a boost in the comodity prices and eventually things are going to get much more expensive (inflation will creep in). While the rise in the equity market will appear to be giving the people more money or ROI for their investment in stocks, the value of the return actually may have shrunk for anyone investing in the US. Couple by the devaluation of the dollar, it makes matter worst for foreign investors like me....

In my personal opinion, the dollar will continue to devalue to the point of about USD:RM of 1:2.78 range and that's basically the level close to the pre-financial crisis that hit the world Asia in particular. Therefore, I believe the emerging markets will benefit emensely from the 600bil of liquidity that may eventually find its way to the stock markets of these countries..

KLCI will likely reach 1650 by Q1 next year.... at the same time, I think property market will also benefit from this extra cash that is floating around with interest rate close zero.

In conclusion, long equity.

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