BJTOTO...

With quite an amount of news focusing mostly number forecasting companies such as MPHB (Magnum), BJToto, Tanjong via PMP.... one thing to note is the gov is not shy to reveal to public that they are in need of cash and that the fastest and the best way to increase its revenue is through sin tax mainly gaming or alternatively you can also call it gambling. While that is a separate issue, my main reason of this post is to highlight the potential short term movement for these companies...

Favourite to outperform the rest is still BJtoto... why, mainly because of its wide variety of games.... and its mega jackpots.... the rest are conventional 4D companies.... while magnum may introduce new games perhaps a jackpot type of game, it will take while before people starts to feel the ummph of the game and start buying on a consistent basis.... while excitement will be there, what matters most is the to get the volume to sustain and bjtoto has the edge and judging by the number of people frequenting their outlets and the market share, it certainly won't be affected eventhough the remaining 2 operators start to introduce more varieties to their current offerings.

Anyway with the huge dividend episode just went by, bjtoto is definitely set to regain its stock price after the adjustment... with today's closing, the stock certainly looks very positive to have a short term run up to RM4.68 at least.... while this is probable, do not that it will have to take place relatively fast before the stock market adjustment happens... so traders, may have to watch closely. On the long run, i expect bjtoto to hit past its Q1'08 high.

The Ten Commandments

The Trader's Ten Commandments

We all know that losing money is a sin. It means you have done what you should not have done and you have left undone what you should have done. In such event, you must repent and in future obey the rules. Below are the ten rules I find interesting and very much relates to my personal guidelines and therefore I feel they live up to be called the ten commandments. The first rule is very much associated to Warren Buffet. :) Enjoy...

1) Thou shalt not lose any money - chances are you won't get it back.
2) Dont risk money when you do not have to - you can beat the market by not being in the market all the time. Consistently strive to improve the risk-return ratio.
3) You can beat any index or stocks by owning only a part of it - Its easier to idenfity the average than to spot the best.
4) When you do invest, only go for those with >50% probability even though it is not a certain outcome.
5) If you hold a position that is going wrong, cut it - always have an exit point ready and stick to it.
6) At all times, only go for strongest or relative strength trends or short only the weakest. - If unsure, dont trade.
7) Adopt a money management system that dynamically cut out losses, exploits an up trend and changes in unit size with respect to capital availability.
8) Always diversify - be reasonable as you don't want to end up having too much to manage.
9) Use methods with the lowest possible cost to trade - makes a good system better
10) Setup your affaird in a way that eliminates if not minimizes your tax burden - optimizes the system.

Courtesy of David Keller
"Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis"

KLCI prediction....

Well, the KLCI market has been on the uptrend since mid of Mar'09 and has never look back since... the bull has been charging like there is no tomorrow since then and even though it hit some bumpy ride around June... that never really give it any problem to pull the CI into a higher territory. In any case, I would like to believe that the bear is still alive and has always been there so don't let the market fool you.

A ~36.5% gain in a quarter is amazing and certainly has put alot of feel good feeling about the market... however, Q3 is already here and traditionally Q3 tend to be a little soft and are usually the profit taking period. So those who have gain, its time to lock the gain and get the cold hard cash stored in your piggy bank.... opprtunities should be abundant for us to reload into the market for next round of gain... and when that happens, its going to be a big gain....

I'm putting here a copy of what my personal simulation model gave for the next 6 months.

Trade or fade...?

While the PM has just announced a couple of measures attract foreign investment, the impact on stock market is nothing significant to remember by....

questions is everywhere whether now is the time to buy or perhaps wait a little longer for it to consolidate.. I wish someone can tell us that but lets face it, everyone has its own goal and in stock market, the base to trading is the different perception of value among investors.

If everyone share the same opinion, who's gonna buy from or sell to you? Another way of looking at it is, under normal circumstances where do you wanna position yourself?

anyway, back on the stock market in Malaysia its pretty much sad case of lack of liquidity.... had the govenment allow investors to short the market, it would be a different scenario...based on the current situation, I would think its best to sell and re-enter again.... few stocks that is worth stalking are probably, sapcres, ijmland, e&o, leader, genting, genm, uemland, saag, sunway.

In a nut shell, what I'm betting for the next few weeks starting from today is that things are gonna head south... so be prepared.. ;)