Thursday, November 6, 2008

KLCI stock market direction?

Well, many things have been said and many assurance were given including the RM7bil "stimulus" plan.... so questions many investors are asking,. is this the bottom of KLCI?
So let's do a recap here...

Internally,
1) Mal gov is using EPF money to fund the valuecap bail out.... why not use the national reserve?
- if we have such huge reserves, why not take some to benefit the people, afterall these are the people's money?
2) EPF contribution reduced from 11% to 8%... hoping the people will use the 3% to spur the economy... what bloody strategy is that??!? more importantly, does it help?
3) No fund was allocated to improve the people's cost of living and purchasing power, (eg. tax rebate, BLR reduction, etc...) --> fuck that RM500mil for police station and army camps maintenance... is there a war? or should I say does the police work so damn hard that our crime rate have reduced? then why the fuck does the gov think the RM500mil (people's hard earn money) should be spent this way? have we found out the person who supplied C4 bomb in the mongolian murder? if the police can't even solve such an outright simple and straight forward case, what makes us think by spending that money, it will improve the services of these incompetent and useless pricks? -> what maintenance will cause RM500mil?? RM1mil for an aircon pipe? RM50k for painting a police station? ACA in this country is a fucking puppet.... that's why.
4) RM1.2 bil for low cost housing? kid me not... is the gov not aware of the state of the consumer confidence and financial conditions? why not invest in building better public transport to lower the cost of living and ease traffic congestion? then the people will have more allowances to cope with the rising cost of living... that's simple economic moron!! -> to the Malaysian leader who approve the "stimulus" plan... get an education!

now let's go external...
4) Sentiments on Oct jobs report in US are extremely negative.... out tonight.... expected to top the number of payroll cuts.... >300k people to be jobless.
5) other data such as home sales and inventories for wholesale will be revealed..
6) GM and Ford will lead the market to south tonight. Both are expected to report huge losses and cut jobs to preserve cash while its management are pinning for Fed's help to inject funds into the company...
7) if GM and Chrysler were to merge (which I think highly possible due to the bleak outlook for auto industry) more heads will roll...with at least close to 33,000 jobs to be cut.
8) GM needs USD14bil at least to keep the business running...GM burned through a little more than $5 billion in the first half of this year, ending the second quarter with $19.4 billion. On the other hand, Ford spent the same amount, but had more cash on hand, ending the second quarter with $30.1 billion while Chrysler ended the second quarter with $11.7 billion.
--->errosion of consumer confidence and inability to borrow from banks are the key problems...
8) Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report a relatively significant drop in earnings tonight.
9) Mr. Obama is not going to take over the office until Jan '09... so don't expect much of his promises to materialize anytime soon in the future...

its a no brainer that the stock market will continue to head south... but the key message is we have not yet reach the bottom....

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