General election and stocks....

Well with the country's 13th general election looming many good counters are suffering the election "overhang" which is putting many counters at a stop for fearing a change in government could affect them.

Counters like DRBHCOM, which is so big and even if BN losses it has probably gotten everything it needs and could survived comfortably over the next few years assuming it continue to manage the entire business entity prudently. CIMB on the other hand also realize the danger of losing the indirect favour from investors and customers should BN lost in the coming election and have since ventured more overseas and have balanced its portfolio and revenue contribution areas. In short, I think these 2 big companies are going to do just fine.

On the other hand, rumour on MBSB being a take over target by RHB has been in the circulation high and low for a while now... has the time come for it to materialize or EPF wants to wait until after election? bottomline is these people don't understand branding and neither do they understand time equals money.

In short, if the objective is there and the purpose is clear that is to enlarge the entire banking group, why wait? also there is no point in having MBSB building its own brand and instead, they should just do a GO and merge the company into RHB or take it private and after some restructuring relist it later to make big bucks. I think MBSB has lots of potential with its dominance in public sector and its network among the civil servants. If only they have vision and guts, things would have been done a lot faster and business would have been much better for its shareholders. That's why ringgit is so low compared to even Singapore dollar.

in a globalized world, malaysian only stand to lose out on the value of their time(spent) as they work 35-45 years earn a decent living and forced to pay for ridiculous car price with ttheir mediocre pay even for graduates. Singporeans only have to work about 20 years to equal the value of what Malaysians earn in a whole lifetime with today's exchange rates.

Of course you can argue the quality is not there for the recent years of graduates but hey, that not a reason to justify the low salary. The main issue is with the education system and the race based policy that stunt Malaysia's progress because after 55 years, the race is still the majority of the poor in the country. If the policy is working, by now we would have zero poverty for that group but the fact that the country's earning gap between the rich and poor gets wider it just proved that the policy is flawed so bad that it needs total revamp.

Also what the fuck is bonus for raya? what about other celebration like Christmas, Deepavali, Chinese New Year, etc... are they not citizen of Malaysia? oh, I get it, majority of the civil servants celebrate Raya. Excuse me, who paid the most taxes? its not the people's fault 99% of the civil sector is domninated by one race.... its the government. they had wanted it that way to stay in power and continue the race based policy.

Everyone that is born in that country is citizen by birth right and that's a given. Why the need to divide into UMNO/MCA/MIC etc... why can't we rule like the US, democrates and republicans easy... both fights for Amaericans regardless of race? ONE word, CORRUPTION. Yes, its alive and very alive in Malaysia because else, why 55 years?

Malaysia today...

You know what, after 50 years I think we've something to be proud of but many more things to be concern of...

Some of the low lights in Malaysia and for all who are born in this country.
1) Crime rate rocketing and police is perceive as not responsive and not proactive neither are they serious in helping civilians during the crime.
2) Country debt is all time high
3) Scandalous projects given to crony companies - all time high and all time high in amount...
4) Cost of living is sky high - at least hawker food in Penang is still manageable but quality have shrunk...
5) % of home ownership is shrinking.. 90% of the graduates today cannot buy a house...even after working for 5 years...
6) Car price is highest in the world if compared to earning per capita.
7) National infrastructure and transportation system is in a mess. its like if you don't have private vehicle, its going to be very painful and frustrating to go to work for majority of the people
8) Tax is so high that its equal to develop countries that provided medicare and lots more benefits to all its citizen and not just a particular group.
9) Education system is going backwards by 10 years... force the usage of bahasa for all students... thanks to short sighted evil unscrupulous leader with no conscience who implemented the evil scheme.
10) Oppression of civilians in a subtle manner, by taking away their rights to choose (education), to speak (freedom of speech), to retire (retirement age pushout so does the EPF withdrawal), right to protest peacefully (freedom of expression) and lastly freedom of will (you can vote but it doesn't matter as the results will likely be the same).

So what has the BN government do for us, Malaysians of all race, age, and gender? Nothing.... look at the city planning and development roadmaps(not sure they even have one)...

So what is BN doing? handling cash through the B1M program just to give temporary please the poor folks in kampung. That's what happen when you have illiterate school dropouts leading majority of the ministries in the government... what a shame. instead of teaching its people to fish, they give fish to advocate perpetual reliance on BN.

Hilariously nice one... another good piece of Russell.

Is KLCI still worth trading time..??

Well, there are many reasons why I have not been blogging of late.. busy with life, family, work, thinking of the many assets of the country being sold to only a selected few individual(s) with high network cable all the way to the top along with the antics of the government in choosing not to disclose the MAS settlement with Mr.Tajuddin. Well, if the government is doing what its elected to do that is safe guarding the interest of the country and its people's development and money, it should by all means disclose to prove the public perception wrong.

Having said that, its becoming obvious that the current government does not care what foreign investors think of Malaysian government and which perfectly justify why many fund managers refuse to invest in KLCI especially when the entire equity market is controlled by EPF, Khazanah and PNB which indirectly or directly controlled by the ruling government be it willingly or unwillingly. Therefore the question of should we still invest in KLCI arises and I think to some extend, its probably still make sense to trade the market but never to long them as its going to be a disaster once the oil dries up.

Anyway, with huge debts and uncontrolled spending in the GLCs and public sector couple with the leakages and were left unaddressed although the PAC has reveal all the serious problems of accounting and spending recorded.

In short, for the next 1-3 years probably the KLCI is still worth trading or punting if you're a season trader.... else forget it and move on to other more natural market with better liquidity and market force... for goodness sake even indonesian market is better then KLCI. I hate to say this but its a fact.

In short, the only sector worth looking at right now it perhaps financials and at most plantation.... sad but true.

Is E&O a good trading?...

Well, the lawsuit from the minority shareholder with respect to the stake sales of the 3 largest individual shareholders to Sime Darby is going to gain traction... :)
You know what, its a no brainer that the stake sale in my opinion is fishy in nature because it involves the CEO of E&O and the price is like way beyond all time high annd perhaps a level that all the minority shareholders will never ever get from their investment in E&O.
Its simple... its a political move by Sime Darby.... again I think its BN's way of wanting to get a hold of the assets that E&O has in Penang island ....primarily the large landbank it holds.
Its also a deal that pissed off ECM Libra who is left in the high and dry since there is no GO by Sime.
The minority shareholders are marginalized and by right, people should be dumping the shares because knowing if Sime can unlock more values, why the CEO himself sold his shares? and knowing that the CEO sold his shares at such a high price to a government linked company says alot about the deal.
If in anyway, somehow the lawsuit turnout to be in favour of the minority share holders, it might bump up the share price of E&O. March is coming... a good trading buy in my opinion but there are risk because the deal apparently is backed by BN hence remember its a trading buy. Just riding the news...

By the way, MBSB is charging nicely... deal coming through? :)

MBSB and CIMB

Financial counters... yes, I am bullish on these 2 counters for some very good reason....
MBSB has been on the up trend since last year Dec and I think if you look at the volume and operating profit and margin, its not that of a surprise for the market capitalization to expand... Lately there have been news of the stock being targeted for privatization with GO at RM2.80. It even came out in a local news paper TheStar... so is the GO a real thing or merely a rumour... Looking at all angles, I think the likelihood of that is real. If I have to guess, I think 90% its going to happen... likely this quarter...

CIMB share price on the other hand has taken a hit since it hit RM9 and for the past quarter it has been hitting bottom at RM7 range and technical indication from chart shows very promising uptrend... volume have been strong of late so I think its going to move up even more...
RM8 is an easy target to hit within a month or so. Those with high risk appetite, go for the warrants... pick and choose though.

MAS, can it fly?

Well, its in the aviation business and it's flying every but will the stock fly?
Its going to keep being in news down the road... 7/10 of them is going to be good for them...
Is the worst over for MAS? likely... but it all depends on how it restructure itself...
Can Tony do it? Will he be able to help MAS? I think it is reputation at stake... therefore I think they are gonna revive MAS again and this time, its going to be good.

Should we buy?.... think so then again... buying mother shares will need loads of capital bt if you buy warrants, its cheaper and better leverage... also please note the video below on leveraging these days..... kinda funny but real...
Leveraging

YTLLand.... ready for the next move

This stock has been in a sleeping mode for a while...
Might just be timely to start looking at this counter... and accumulate some before it starts rising again to RM1.50... some reasons to consider are as below...

1) Potential catalyst: re-rating due to potential from the MRT exposure.
2) Huge land bank of over 2.2k acres last I was told..
3) Privatisation talk?

You decide...

DRBHCOM getting proton at a bargain?

Looks like it... reason is more investment is required to sustain and grow proton... so purchase price will have to account for that... so buy proton or DRB? :)

UOADEV.... positioning for upside

UOADev has been on a down trend ever since its IPO days and its not surprising given the high IPO price during the listing... Anyway, the stocks have been hovering at the range of RM1.30-RM1.48 range for a while now...certainly looks healthy for an upside rally... Despite property sector downside risks... this counter looks to be a good bet for a short terms 10-20% return.

Any dip in Dialog from its closing price today to below RM2.40 is a good buy...

What's up with MBSB?

Well, MBSB just broke RM2 today and closed at RM2.02 hitting an intraday high of RM2.05...

What's in store for the rise in the share price?...

Q4 earning is expected to be much better than expectation... Growth prospect is solid... especially with the government friendly policy of late that has given the majority of household the extra bucks to ease their cost of living.

MBSB's operating income is expected to continue to rise in the next 6-12 months...

Also will there be M&A involved for this counter?...maybe... Is RM2.50 a reality or a dream too far fetch?

It might just be a reality in the next 6 months if its a normal year but since we have election this year, so let's target the next 8 trading days... I would say RM2.20 could be achievable if similar volume continues to pile into it...Should it stay above RM2, its 80% going to hit that price with ease...

Could there be another leg up?...we'll see... :)

2012 Resolutions...

Well, here we are the first day of 2012...Happy New Year!

Some issues to consider for the year ...

1) There will be a "clean" election in Malaysia.

2) Nagging Euro problem

3) China economic hard landing fear

4) Arab crisis and Iran nuclear/oil output standoff.

Below are what I think will happen

1) BN will win with similar margin as 2008 if not worse.

2) Euro will survive and get stronger

3) China will not merely soft land and stock market is expected to pick up by 2H

4) Iran issue will keep oil above USD120 but Arab crisis will ease out with leaders being ousted just like Egypt and Libya.

Below are some personal forecast for KLCI

-Jan effect to kick in strong... Feb onwards is a time to sell all and go away...

-RHBCap offer price for OSK... ~RM2.38.

-BIMB and MBSB to be and hit RM2 and above respectively.

-GENTING to rise..

-UEMLAND to expected to rise ~15% share price in the next 1-2 months...

- BENALEC is going to go way above IPO opening price for good..

Well, I guess that's all for now....

By the way, Man City lost to Sunderland 1-0... its a fair score and that's what happen when there is no concentration... keep it up! :p

Proton.... easily made a "proton" today....

Well, news of Khazanah confiming that proton stakes will be sold completely and will involve a GO for all shareholders bump up the shares pretty good.... punters who got burned in the past weeks would have recovered their money today easily... is there more room to go?
There have been rumours that the offer is not going to be too high because of the amount of money required to keep proton "alive"...think you know what I mean...
Anyway, RM5.60 is not too much neither its too low in my opinion.
Whether there is still room for punters to ride the upside... believe so...
but even if it does not go up tomorrow, think its done many a favour... or perhaps a proton's "senior" executive may want to call a another press conference to say that it may not necessarily requires a GO or say probably proton is still considering the sales... etc..
Well then perhaps the executive forget that people can now sue SC for not doing its job.
How I wish the suit filed by the minority shareholders turned out to be successful... then E&O shareholders will get their justice... :)

My view is its best to sell proton off and take it private to sell off its asset bits by bits.. RM9.48 NTA is too high to offer for any bidders today... the whole company is getting less and less inspiration with their models... despite the recent model "inspira". I wonder big time, how the fcuk did they get feel that the name inspira would fit "Proton Ceplac"would probably be more suitable... more down to earth or perhaps" Proton Walan"...

Does the government know how much it will save the people of this country in terms of disposable income if the car prices are allow to go down should they let proton compete on a fair ground? its impact is enormous to the country's economy... but then again I don't expect the current gov to understand economics afterall, its because of this protective policy that has mold proton to become what it is today. Competition makes people stronger... well I guess, their balls are tied.

UEMLand....a rally in the making?

Well, its been a while since I talked about this stock and of late this counter seems 'active' and if the charts are anything to go by.... I think its about time it moves up the ladder with the huge potential in the Johor southern corridor projects picking up pace and the opening of the Johor Premium Outlet certainly have certainly given its assets and projects a boost... I think in the short term there is certainly going to be more good news in the pipeline for this company...

Chart wise,... its about right to accumulate in my opinion... your call.

US payroll taxcut and unemployment Insurance

Hey, here we go again...

If a bickering congress cannot agree to extend the payroll taxcut and the unemployment insurance for the people of the US, the could be some impact to the 2012 economic growth...

While the Republican is pushing for a full year extension, the democrats is adamant of not giving anymore extension. By Jan'12 if both the political divide cannot come together to reach a consensus, then the S&P might just fall come the beginning of 2012... that's when the bear will begin to take control... beware, you have just been warned.

MBSB Upgrade

Haven't posted much lately busy trading and keeping up with global news particularly Europe..
Anyway, MBSB is poised to hit above RM2 very soon...
An impending upgrade is expected due to the expectation of significant revenue increase in 2012!...

Is the Christmas equity bull run alive or dead?

Well, things certainly looks rather gloomy with US super committee failure to impress?
No tax hike, 1.2 tril automatic deficit cut.... its a win win for both sides, so what's the problem?
It just goes to show a weak government in my opinion. US14tril deficit is way too much to be indecisive... Republicans and the Democrats need to work together to agree to a bottomline that US needs to do to bring the country back to growth and lead the rest of the world.
Essentially there is no difference in leadership between US leaders and the European leaders in addressing the sovereign debt crisis....

Now with the China's Nov manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slumping to a level lowest in more than 2 years... is China going to see a hard landing because of China's monetary tightening campaign? Only in Q3 China raised interest rates for the third time this year in a bid to calm rising consumer prices.... so is China currently the world's growth engine is affected by the recent Europe's financial turmoil? Well of course!... its has always been a demand and supply thingy and will continue to be bounded by that.... else who do you think China are selling to??

Well, as for KLCI, I think its a different animal... afterall its backed by EPF, Khazanah and PNB continuously so I think its going to have the year end rally. Well, the moment penny stocks starts losing its glitters then its time the fundamental kicks in... in the mean time, let's punt safely.. :p

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis averted?...

Well, guess if you use the yesterday's equity market performance to gauge and looking at the whole world response to the news that the European leaders have agreed on the below

1) 50% write down of the Greek govt debt
2) Increased EFSF to 1.4 tril and its bailout mechanism
3) Recapitalization of banks in euro region

Is that all it takes to resolve the problem? No.
Regardless, its at the very least a plan finally from the European leaders despite the cancellation of the Wed finance minster meeting which I think could have happen unofficially nonetheless.
Anyway, the fundamental problem is easy that is the european government and its people spent too much, too fast and produce too little. When you're in such situation, it is as good as you are earning $5k monthly but have a monthly debt commitment of $5k to meet if not more. how to survive? well, first get real and face the reality and embark on a plan to restructure the cost structure. In this case, Greece needs to stimulate earning growth and increase revenue while at the same time reduce expenditure of the government.

The entiutlement mindset of the people have to change, from entitlement to well deserve.
Untill that culture is changed, the sepeople will always find that the government is not doing well for its people. I am not saying the governement is not at fault but I am saying the people is equally at fault for having such expectation (entitlement mentality) from the government.

So back to the the KLCI, stocks are moving well and many blue chips have indeed recorded stellar movement of late. Look at Genting, Mahsing, UEMLand, IJM. I am bringing you back to these 2 counters... MBSB and OSK...

MBSB, still ridiculously undervalued and expected to jump once the company posts its quarterly results.

OSK, a good buy especially when many are expecting a RM2.30-RM2.50 price offer from RHBCap. Personally, if I am Ong Leong Huat, I will not sell unless its RM2.50 and above.

MBSB undervalued...

MBSB has been in the spotlight for the past week due to the budget expectation that will indirectly benefit the company should civil servants' pay are bumped up with adjustment and bonus.

Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), 2nd quarter results has been very impressive.

The financial institution, which has the Employees Provident Fund as its biggest shareholder with about 66% stake, saw net profit come in at RM78.2 million, which was 58% higher than a year ago and 14.5 higher than the preceding quarter.

First half net profit is RM146.5 million, a 58% increase from a year ago beating analysts' expectations by about 12%.

The strong profit growth was largely driven by a steep rise in Islamic banking income, supported by stronger demand for personal financing among civil servants.

While housing loans used to be the group's traditional area of strength, going foward, areas of growth would be personal loans and corporate loans which are fast catching up.

Personal loans currently accounts for about 40% of MBSB's overall loans, followed by housing loans 34% and corporate loans 25%.

The company plans to launch more new retail products this year, such as hire purchase loans and Islamic credit cards, to diversify its revenue.

MBSB's share price has risen of late and closed at RM1.64 today inline with the global equity recovery in the stock markets.

Enought of the typical report, this stock is definitely under value and I would place a target price of RM2.39 to be achieved in the next 3-6 months down the road.

Re-rating catalysts include but not limited to
1) Higher-than-expected loan growth and margins
2) A sustainably high return on equity of over 20 per cent
3) Confirmation of a dividend payout ratio of at least 35 per cent
4) Potential M&A

MBSB, in which PNB also has ~12% stake, had in last quarter surprised investors with a gross dividend of 5 sen a share. It was the first time in recent years that it declared an interim dividend.
Personally feel that the company could easily be making a full-year net profit in excess of RM275 million.

In short, is the recent run up a sign to buy? Hell yeah....

Private companies being bought over by GLCs...

What's the implication?
Well you can say what you want but I can tell you such exercise which are rampantly happening in the Malaysian soil is what drives foreign investors away from the Malaysian stock market.
This started since Maybank time, when the bank was taken over in a hostile manner by government. The owner of course has since left the country. Robert Kuok sold his sugar business and moved his main core business out of the country.... UEMLand buying Sunrise...Sime Darby buying into E&O and now PNB taking over SP Setia....
As an investors, all I care about is the going concern of the company and whether the company will generate higher values for shareholders over time... We all know GLC's track record!, less than satisfactory given the upperhand they enjoy as GLCs. Hence fuck it, why would I believe that SP Setia is going to get better with PNB taking over?!?

Look at Sime Darby, poorly managed... MAS, do I need to say more? Bottomline there are nothing wrong with the business model of those GLCs but rather the people running them that is the culprit to why these companies are not generating super income for its stakeholders...

So, while the government tries to privatise more entity, GLCs are "deprivatising" companies... just what the fuck is the government trying to do?? have some sense of direction for goodness sake... lack of strategic leadership is the key to the country's problem and lack of FDI.

The undilah video, is so true... this country is full of problem.... you can say which country don't have problem but this one has far more shit than you think. You don't want to wait until it explode and get hit by the shit right on your face.