Thursday, March 29, 2007

A reminder for IDR?

Guys, this is an article which i think we all as an investor and malaysian tax payers need to know.

Lessons from Singapore and HK 11 Mar 2007 Tunku Abdul Aziz.

THE very idea of a new metropolis in southern Johor to rival Singapore and Hong Kong is intriguing, to put it mildly. Sceptics, of whom there are many in our midst, are already raising their eyebrows, plucked or otherwise, as if to say, "Here we go again!"Malaysia's thirst for the "superlatives", and don't we know it, is unquenchable.
I see nothing wrong with our trying to replicate the best; the verdict of the international business community is that Singapore and Hong Kong are the best cities in our region in which to live and work. We, too, have a great city, Kuala Lumpur, the pride of the nation. Why is it that in spite of the iconic Twin Towers and the biggest this and the longest that, we do not measure up to international standards?
Some years ago, the Economist Conferences invited me to deliver a speech in Bangkok on (no prizes for guessing) fighting corruption. The three-day gathering was attended by dozens of high-powered chief financial officers of multinational corporations in the Asia-Pacific. The Economist's straw poll during the conference asked which city they would choose if they were setting up a regional office, and, by implication, where they would prefer to live as expatriates. To a man/woman, the choice was Hong Kong first and Singapore second. Kuala Lumpur, to my utter consternation and embarrassment as a proud Malaysian, did not even get a look-in. In the late autumn of 1999, I was a guest at a private dinner in Washington DC. An American private investment banker who had just returned from a "shopping" trip to Malaysia was asked, "Of all the countries in Asia, where would you invest your clients' money?" His reply shook me to the marrow: "Anywhere except Malaysia." He then mentioned how a senior government official had told him that a foreigner could not buy a Malaysian company unless he had a Malay partner and he would be more than happy to recommend one in the spirit of US/Malaysia relations. Upon further enquiry, it turned out that the proposed partner was the civil servant's brother-in-law.

I spent much of the evening explaining to the Americans that it was not government policy that a foreigner had to have a Malay partner before he could acquire assets in Malaysia. The point about these little stories is that both Hong Kong and Singapore set out deliberately to become attractive, well-ordered and safe cosmopolitan cities in which business could be conducted with minimum inconvenience. They have not become great cities by accident. For us, so used to and comfortable with our slapdash approach to doing things, it will require a complete culture change, which in turn can come about only if there is an unequivocal commitment by the government to facilitate the necessary change management. Nothing less than a thoroughgoing reform of our legal framework, rules and regulations will suffice.

When we talk about the Iskandar Development Region (IDR) as a metropolis to rival both Hong Kong and Singapore, we are entering the realm of serious competition, in every respect, with the top world competitiveness heavyweight champions. While I have not the slightest doubt that we are more than up to pouring colossal amounts of cash and concrete into this project, do we have the capacity and inclination to see it through by continually seeking to meet the ever-changing global environment and business requirements? Judged by almost all the important social, economic and environmental indicators, these two cities beat the Twin Towers hands down.Our only claim to fame is that Kuala Lumpur is the cheapest city in the world for visiting businessmen. What we want badly are those who will come to set up offices and live here and add richness not only to our economy but also to our national diversity.

Being cheap may count as a competitive advantage, but in our case, listening to the woes of foreign businessmen trying to set up operations here and dealing with the bureaucracy, we seem to offer a service that is cheap but with a nasty twist in the tail. And when we factor in corruption, then doing business in Malaysia becomes costly.Ever wondered why more foreign direct investment is not parking itself here? Talk to both the local and foreign business communities, and what they have to say based on their experiences would make your hair curl. Both Singapore and Hong Kong, which the IDR aspires to rival, started as very corrupt societies and yet today are among the top 10 least corrupt countries in the world, according to the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index. In short, they have shown that corruption is bad for business, especially global business, and they are making sure that the good old days will never come back to haunt them again.Have we the political will to confront corruption decisively or have we run out of steam? If the dream of a new super metropolis is not to become a fiasco and a burden, to be borne, as always, by the hapless taxpayer, the government must ensure that the IDR is as different from Kuala Lumpur as it is possible to be. Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur has absolutely nothing to offer in either efficiency or integrity. Again, do not take my word for it; ask the long-suffering taxpayers of Kuala Lumpur.We have the great fortune of starting from scratch, from the ground up, and we have the biggest advantage of all:
The lessons we can learn from Hong Kong and Singapore on what makes them tick as the preferred business destinations of East Asia and the Pacific. No shame in learning from two "little red dots" which, in my book, are truly "islands of integrity".In summary, therefore, do not put crooks in charge, so that good governance can take root to make the IDR shine even brighter than Hong Kong and Singapore ¡X and while we are in a dreaming mood, why not throw in Dubai for good measure? We are entitled to our dreams. This is Malaysia, after all.* Tunku Abdul Aziz is a former special adviser to the UN secretary-general on Ethics.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

KLCI losing steam?

Today we saw another episode of sudden 'u-turn' in our KLCI that wipes out plenty of gains from many investors particularly short term retail players as well as traders.
Have we forgotten that the bear is still very much alive? or we have gone too complacent with gains from the recent bull run that we fail to remind ourself that what goes up must come down? a quick look at the KLCI chart tells us it's likely that the KLCI will consolidate further tomorrow. how far could it go, it depends on the faith the people have in Malaysia's economy.
Remember to never turn a failed short term buy to long term investment just because you're caught by the bear. Cut lost when necessary and reposition your cash for a re-entry at a lower price. It's never too late to enter the market, as the market will always be here for us to trade.
All we need is to stay alive!

Monday, March 26, 2007

How far will YTL rise in 2007



With the proposed plan to build the KL-Singapore bullet train and the Sentul-Batu Caves high speed rail under the 9MP, YTL is share is definitely undervalued as compare to is peers....the bullet train projects is estimated to be around USD3bil....while the Sentul to BatuCaves link is bout USD160mil. YTL and it's 5 listed companies have a total combine market cap of about USD8.3bil....


Not to forget is YTL Corp also owns many unlisted assets which could definitely increase it's value if it decides to lists them particularly in Hong Kong or Singapore...:)

YTL Corp also owns indirect 100% of YTL Utilities which already have about a billion dolar project in hand and will contribute even more to its earnings through it susidiary Wessex Water which it owns 100% as well. It's power division will also contribute to it's earning significantly thanks to a bold venture by Tan Sri Francis Yeoh back in the 90s...

Furthermore, YTL corp owns about 74% of YTLe which recently has been awarded the Wimax license in Peninsular Malaysia...giving it an opportunity to be a fullfledge telco... few financial house even placed a target price of RM10.80 on YTL Corp...that is pretty optimistic, you might say but I believe that is achievable.

To invest or not?....you decide.

Friday, March 23, 2007

AFFIN consolidating for the next jump?

AFFIN has been trading at a volatile range between 1.9 and 2.68 for the past 3 weeks...with M&A potential hovering around the stock and now the abolishment of the RPGT which indirectly will benefit the banking sector in the long run...question is, will AFFIN be one of them?...i personally believe that AFFIN will benefit substantially from the 'side effects' of the 9mp and the goodies reveal by the Government for the property sector....without doubts the invest malaysia conference does inject confidence in foreign investors and reaffirm the Government's effort in attracting more FDI into our country. The feel good factor is also slowly picking up and given the likelihood of election coming in the near term, retail investors in general are expected to ride the bullish sentiment and jump into the market....now back to the chart, should AFFIN manage to hold it's support level at $2.30 which i believe is well supported, the stock will break it's high of $2.68 and eventually touch a all time high of $3.00 once the bull return.
Well the price/NTA is currently at 0.8417 and is deem very undervalued to me. Just watch out this stock.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Property Sector - 2nd wave?


When it comes to property, most of the investors normally will look at counters like IJM, GAMUDA, SP SETIA and probably UEM WORLD which is in the limelight and gem for punters as the most likely to profit from 9MP particularly the IDR. Some financial analysts even came up with a TP of $8.90-$11.00 for UEM WORLD... Ridiculous you think?...Well, it's not impossible at all provided the IDR was rollout in a very 'effective' and careful manner.

On anticipation that the Government may abolish the RPGT at the Invest Malaysia conference tomorrow will further fuel the interest for property counters... I personally think to some extend the government should amend the RPGT to attract more participation of foreign investors to support the IDR...the outcome, we'll know in 3 days time....

One counter that is a favourite for punters but commands very little interest from retailers is MULPHA. This counter hit a high of $1.94 about a month ago and closed at $1.75 as of today's trading. From the TA perspective, this stock is currently sitting on it's psychological level and should it shoot past this level soon, it should break the $1.80 resistance level and settle above $2.00. Not forgeting that MULPHA has quite a piece of the pie in the IDR project too... In the long run, I place a target price of $3.10 taking into account the NTA of the stock and the potential super cycle from the IDR development.





JOTECH signs of bullish?



Well, let's take a look at Jotech's chart here...technical indicators basically tells us its trading in the oversold range....how true is this information?...MACD indicates that the stock could have probably hit the bottom of the cycle...Stochastic(slow) supports very much the likelihood that the stock is on a turn around(bullish cycle)...


RSI indicators is howering slightly below the 30 level which technically reaffirms oversold status for this stock....could this be real?...checkout the trading volume and you'll see relatively strong accumulation holding the stock around 0.165-0.17...should this stock break the resistance level of 0.18 we should see it rise with a resistance level capped at 0.223.


just my 2 cents worth...

-Toe