Stock Trading & Financial (KLCI)

YTLLand.... ready for the next move

2012-01-16T06:50:00.000-08:00

This stock has been in a sleeping mode for a while...
Might just be timely to start looking at this counter... and accumulate some before it starts rising again to RM1.50... some reasons to consider are as below...

1) Potential catalyst: re-rating due to potential from the MRT exposure.
2) Huge land bank of over 2.2k acres last I was told..
3) Privatisation talk?

You decide...

DRBHCOM getting proton at a bargain?

2012-01-12T23:46:00.000-08:00

Looks like it... reason is more investment is required to sustain and grow proton... so purchase price will have to account for that... so buy proton or DRB? :)

UOADEV.... positioning for upside

2012-01-12T07:05:00.000-08:00

UOADev has been on a down trend ever since its IPO days and its not surprising given the high IPO price during the listing... Anyway, the stocks have been hovering at the range of RM1.30-RM1.48 range for a while now...certainly looks healthy for an upside rally... Despite property sector downside risks... this counter looks to be a good bet for a short terms 10-20% return.

Any dip in Dialog from its closing price today to below RM2.40 is a good buy...

What's up with MBSB?

2012-01-10T07:17:00.000-08:00

Well, MBSB just broke RM2 today and closed at RM2.02 hitting an intraday high of RM2.05...

What's in store for the rise in the share price?...

Q4 earning is expected to be much better than expectation... Growth prospect is solid... especially with the government friendly policy of late that has given the majority of household the extra bucks to ease their cost of living.

MBSB's operating income is expected to continue to rise in the next 6-12 months...

Also will there be M&A involved for this counter?...maybe... Is RM2.50 a reality or a dream too far fetch?

It might just be a reality in the next 6 months if its a normal year but since we have election this year, so let's target the next 8 trading days... I would say RM2.20 could be achievable if similar volume continues to pile into it...Should it stay above RM2, its 80% going to hit that price with ease...

Could there be another leg up?...we'll see... :)

2012 Resolutions...

2012-01-01T09:27:00.000-08:00

Well, here we are the first day of 2012...Happy New Year!

Some issues to consider for the year ...

1) There will be a "clean" election in Malaysia.

2) Nagging Euro problem

3) China economic hard landing fear

4) Arab crisis and Iran nuclear/oil output standoff.

Below are what I think will happen

1) BN will win with similar margin as 2008 if not worse.

2) Euro will survive and get stronger

3) China will not merely soft land and stock market is expected to pick up by 2H

4) Iran issue will keep oil above USD120 but Arab crisis will ease out with leaders being ousted just like Egypt and Libya.

Below are some personal forecast for KLCI

-Jan effect to kick in strong... Feb onwards is a time to sell all and go away...

-RHBCap offer price for OSK... ~RM2.38.

-BIMB and MBSB to be and hit RM2 and above respectively.

-GENTING to rise..

-UEMLAND to expected to rise ~15% share price in the next 1-2 months...

- BENALEC is going to go way above IPO opening price for good..

Well, I guess that's all for now....

By the way, Man City lost to Sunderland 1-0... its a fair score and that's what happen when there is no concentration... keep it up! :p

Proton.... easily made a "proton" today....

2011-12-27T07:27:00.000-08:00

Well, news of Khazanah confiming that proton stakes will be sold completely and will involve a GO for all shareholders bump up the shares pretty good.... punters who got burned in the past weeks would have recovered their money today easily... is there more room to go?
There have been rumours that the offer is not going to be too high because of the amount of money required to keep proton "alive"...think you know what I mean...
Anyway, RM5.60 is not too much neither its too low in my opinion.
Whether there is still room for punters to ride the upside... believe so...
but even if it does not go up tomorrow, think its done many a favour... or perhaps a proton's "senior" executive may want to call a another press conference to say that it may not necessarily requires a GO or say probably proton is still considering the sales... etc..
Well then perhaps the executive forget that people can now sue SC for not doing its job.
How I wish the suit filed by the minority shareholders turned out to be successful... then E&O shareholders will get their justice... :)

My view is its best to sell proton off and take it private to sell off its asset bits by bits.. RM9.48 NTA is too high to offer for any bidders today... the whole company is getting less and less inspiration with their models... despite the recent model "inspira". I wonder big time, how the fcuk did they get feel that the name inspira would fit "Proton Ceplac"would probably be more suitable... more down to earth or perhaps" Proton Walan"...

Does the government know how much it will save the people of this country in terms of disposable income if the car prices are allow to go down should they let proton compete on a fair ground? its impact is enormous to the country's economy... but then again I don't expect the current gov to understand economics afterall, its because of this protective policy that has mold proton to become what it is today. Competition makes people stronger... well I guess, their balls are tied.

UEMLand....a rally in the making?

2011-12-22T18:45:00.001-08:00

Well, its been a while since I talked about this stock and of late this counter seems 'active' and if the charts are anything to go by.... I think its about time it moves up the ladder with the huge potential in the Johor southern corridor projects picking up pace and the opening of the Johor Premium Outlet certainly have certainly given its assets and projects a boost... I think in the short term there is certainly going to be more good news in the pipeline for this company...

Chart wise,... its about right to accumulate in my opinion... your call.

US payroll taxcut and unemployment Insurance

2011-12-21T17:21:00.000-08:00

Hey, here we go again...

If a bickering congress cannot agree to extend the payroll taxcut and the unemployment insurance for the people of the US, the could be some impact to the 2012 economic growth...

While the Republican is pushing for a full year extension, the democrats is adamant of not giving anymore extension. By Jan'12 if both the political divide cannot come together to reach a consensus, then the S&P might just fall come the beginning of 2012... that's when the bear will begin to take control... beware, you have just been warned.

MBSB Upgrade

2011-12-13T00:34:00.000-08:00

Haven't posted much lately busy trading and keeping up with global news particularly Europe..
Anyway, MBSB is poised to hit above RM2 very soon...
An impending upgrade is expected due to the expectation of significant revenue increase in 2012!...

Is the Christmas equity bull run alive or dead?

2011-11-22T21:40:00.000-08:00

Well, things certainly looks rather gloomy with US super committee failure to impress?
No tax hike, 1.2 tril automatic deficit cut.... its a win win for both sides, so what's the problem?
It just goes to show a weak government in my opinion. US14tril deficit is way too much to be indecisive... Republicans and the Democrats need to work together to agree to a bottomline that US needs to do to bring the country back to growth and lead the rest of the world.
Essentially there is no difference in leadership between US leaders and the European leaders in addressing the sovereign debt crisis....

Now with the China's Nov manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slumping to a level lowest in more than 2 years... is China going to see a hard landing because of China's monetary tightening campaign? Only in Q3 China raised interest rates for the third time this year in a bid to calm rising consumer prices.... so is China currently the world's growth engine is affected by the recent Europe's financial turmoil? Well of course!... its has always been a demand and supply thingy and will continue to be bounded by that.... else who do you think China are selling to??

Well, as for KLCI, I think its a different animal... afterall its backed by EPF, Khazanah and PNB continuously so I think its going to have the year end rally. Well, the moment penny stocks starts losing its glitters then its time the fundamental kicks in... in the mean time, let's punt safely.. :p

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis averted?...

2011-10-27T23:23:00.000-07:00

Well, guess if you use the yesterday's equity market performance to gauge and looking at the whole world response to the news that the European leaders have agreed on the below

1) 50% write down of the Greek govt debt
2) Increased EFSF to 1.4 tril and its bailout mechanism
3) Recapitalization of banks in euro region

Is that all it takes to resolve the problem? No.
Regardless, its at the very least a plan finally from the European leaders despite the cancellation of the Wed finance minster meeting which I think could have happen unofficially nonetheless.
Anyway, the fundamental problem is easy that is the european government and its people spent too much, too fast and produce too little. When you're in such situation, it is as good as you are earning $5k monthly but have a monthly debt commitment of $5k to meet if not more. how to survive? well, first get real and face the reality and embark on a plan to restructure the cost structure. In this case, Greece needs to stimulate earning growth and increase revenue while at the same time reduce expenditure of the government.

The entiutlement mindset of the people have to change, from entitlement to well deserve.
Untill that culture is changed, the sepeople will always find that the government is not doing well for its people. I am not saying the governement is not at fault but I am saying the people is equally at fault for having such expectation (entitlement mentality) from the government.

So back to the the KLCI, stocks are moving well and many blue chips have indeed recorded stellar movement of late. Look at Genting, Mahsing, UEMLand, IJM. I am bringing you back to these 2 counters... MBSB and OSK...

MBSB, still ridiculously undervalued and expected to jump once the company posts its quarterly results.

OSK, a good buy especially when many are expecting a RM2.30-RM2.50 price offer from RHBCap. Personally, if I am Ong Leong Huat, I will not sell unless its RM2.50 and above.

MBSB undervalued...

2011-10-13T12:13:00.000-07:00

MBSB has been in the spotlight for the past week due to the budget expectation that will indirectly benefit the company should civil servants' pay are bumped up with adjustment and bonus.

Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), 2nd quarter results has been very impressive.

The financial institution, which has the Employees Provident Fund as its biggest shareholder with about 66% stake, saw net profit come in at RM78.2 million, which was 58% higher than a year ago and 14.5 higher than the preceding quarter.

First half net profit is RM146.5 million, a 58% increase from a year ago beating analysts' expectations by about 12%.

The strong profit growth was largely driven by a steep rise in Islamic banking income, supported by stronger demand for personal financing among civil servants.

While housing loans used to be the group's traditional area of strength, going foward, areas of growth would be personal loans and corporate loans which are fast catching up.

Personal loans currently accounts for about 40% of MBSB's overall loans, followed by housing loans 34% and corporate loans 25%.

The company plans to launch more new retail products this year, such as hire purchase loans and Islamic credit cards, to diversify its revenue.

MBSB's share price has risen of late and closed at RM1.64 today inline with the global equity recovery in the stock markets.

Enought of the typical report, this stock is definitely under value and I would place a target price of RM2.39 to be achieved in the next 3-6 months down the road.

Re-rating catalysts include but not limited to
1) Higher-than-expected loan growth and margins
2) A sustainably high return on equity of over 20 per cent
3) Confirmation of a dividend payout ratio of at least 35 per cent
4) Potential M&A

MBSB, in which PNB also has ~12% stake, had in last quarter surprised investors with a gross dividend of 5 sen a share. It was the first time in recent years that it declared an interim dividend.
Personally feel that the company could easily be making a full-year net profit in excess of RM275 million.

In short, is the recent run up a sign to buy? Hell yeah....

Private companies being bought over by GLCs...

2011-10-04T09:10:00.001-07:00

What's the implication?
Well you can say what you want but I can tell you such exercise which are rampantly happening in the Malaysian soil is what drives foreign investors away from the Malaysian stock market.
This started since Maybank time, when the bank was taken over in a hostile manner by government. The owner of course has since left the country. Robert Kuok sold his sugar business and moved his main core business out of the country.... UEMLand buying Sunrise...Sime Darby buying into E&O and now PNB taking over SP Setia....
As an investors, all I care about is the going concern of the company and whether the company will generate higher values for shareholders over time... We all know GLC's track record!, less than satisfactory given the upperhand they enjoy as GLCs. Hence fuck it, why would I believe that SP Setia is going to get better with PNB taking over?!?

Look at Sime Darby, poorly managed... MAS, do I need to say more? Bottomline there are nothing wrong with the business model of those GLCs but rather the people running them that is the culprit to why these companies are not generating super income for its stakeholders...

So, while the government tries to privatise more entity, GLCs are "deprivatising" companies... just what the fuck is the government trying to do?? have some sense of direction for goodness sake... lack of strategic leadership is the key to the country's problem and lack of FDI.

The undilah video, is so true... this country is full of problem.... you can say which country don't have problem but this one has far more shit than you think. You don't want to wait until it explode and get hit by the shit right on your face.

Property sector of Malaysia

2011-09-18T22:27:00.000-07:00

Well, the recent selldown of many property counters is not surprising...
As of today, most housing projects will still be selling like hot cakes in most of the areas in the country. Question is do we have secondary market demand? even those projects that costs around 400k are sold out in hours upon launch especially those from reputable developers....
I think there are so many sellers and so little buyers these days... therefore its buyers market.
Worst, the property sold in Malaysia are not habitable upon completion unlike houses in foreign countries like US, Aus, UK. Developers get good margin from the current model...
E.g. You buy a RM1.2-1.5mil condo in Penang and you still need to renovate at least 150-200k to make it cozy and feels like a home. Most of the materials are cheap parts and there is nothing in the unit for you to move in and stay...
Tell you what,... if you ask do we have a property bubble now?... I would say "fuck yeah, there is one big one", if the Europe thing go worse and Greece is bankcrupt and recession comes in 2012... property prices will drop significantly... that time you will get many houses on fire sale... just look at the supply...

KLCI, Malaysia and all the issues today...

2011-09-18T21:54:00.000-07:00

Well, PM's named a few plans that pushes towards restoring the democratic freedom Malaysian have lost since few decades ago...before the people begin to feel that there is a hope in the country, we need to wait and see. PM of this country today have the tendency to flip from flop and the flip again....well, election is near and therefore such announcement is not surprising.

As a person who is born here and stay here for long enough, I can tell you, unless they implement all those and passed them into laws, all those politicians can say what they want.. its just lip service to me. The gov of Malaysia is famous for bad execution despite great plans.
Look at MAS, its not like the model is not working, its the management and also the reliability of its human resource in pushing for a change that's dragging MAS to red...

Proton is another joke that everyone is tired of... after so many years, they still "chiplak" Mitsubishi.... Naza is doing better than them... to me, for Malaysia to move forward, there are a few things we need to do in my opinion.

1) No bail out to the national car company and remove APs.
2) Improve purchasing power and disposable income. If you cannot improve the income of the people, reduce the ridiculous import tax on goods such as car which is an essential item today in every household, no thanks BN's bloody lousy city planning and nation development strategy. I doubt they even have a strategy in the first place. Just look at the recent MRT rush.
3) Implement selective protection policy on certain industry for the sake of Malaysian but remove the 30% equity requirement for certain race. If the gov is honest in helping to eradicate poverty, then allow the 30% equity to be given based on merit and to the public not to elites of strong political cables.
4) 1Malaysia, before you want the people to unite the gov must themselve unite. If PM and its people cannot even get themselves to unite on the malaysian first and race 2nd, just stop all these nonsense of hypocrite. Walk the talk else fuck off.
5) Implement a public sector hiring policy of certain % of race must be met for every gov sector and allow every level/position in the company to have different races holding positions. Most importantly the gov must ensure some form of incentives are given (tax rebate) when company practice the policy. Gov need to embrace diversity instead of making all GLCs, one race.

6) Fix the fucking education system by letting someone with credibility and capability to lead that area. I'm sure we have many people to choose from, it takes courage and a true patriot to do so. Education is afterall the foundation to a country's success. You want FDI, show us the brains!

7) Have the guts to charge those implicated in corruptions be it your colleague or your political opponent.

8) Rule of thumb in life: When people know they are supported even though they don't have to do anything to earn that support, they learned helplessness. On the other hand, if they know that they will have nothing to support them should they choose to laz around,...they will work hard for a living.

Equity market going to rise or plunge further?..

2011-08-25T01:46:00.000-07:00

Hey, what's going on with the market?!?... a question that is ringing in many of our minds and in fact, fundamentally the economic situation in the US is doing well despite the S&P downgrade, however, Europe is the culprit... unless the sovereign debt issue is resolved with solid measures being implemented, one of them letting countries that are weak to fail or default and kick them out of the Euro circle. By continuing to bail them out is only going to create more issues down the road and we will never get to invest in peace knowing we just buried a "time bomb".

Well many can say, what's the big deal with the debt ceiling? nothing too serious in my opinion... the US can still print money as they have always been doing and will continue so in the future.
The most critical day that many investors are waiting is Aug 26th the day the Fed will meet and many are expecting there will be some indication of stimulus as evident in the last few days whereby bargain hunters swooped in....

Tell you what, if by Friday the stock market is reasonably sustained, why would the Fed be doing anything? Another way of saying is why does the Fed need to say something to the tune of QE3 (for example)? They don't!!... the Fed has said that they will keep interest rates low until mid of 2013 and they will let the market ride out the rough waves... what makes you think the Fed would be announcing some stimulus for the economy or even QE3?

While I remain a buyer, I just don't think the market have reached the bottom on the overall... some stocks don't need to wait until the market tanks before they reach super cheap status... with the rate that the KLCI is going (for example), many stocks are already fundamentally cheap if you are to long them... Key is to spot them and take the risk...

Main concern here is Europe needs to do something fast before it drags the US banking system down with it...
Last I want to see is Dow Jones down more than 1000 points in a day.... To Germany, the big brother of Europe "Be a man , do the right thing".

So what now?...

2011-08-11T09:00:00.000-07:00

The US Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates at the current level for the next 2 years.... US market reacted only to give up the gains the next day... With the ECB is buying Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to address the concern on the European sovereign debt issue,US economy is apparently slowing down...

With so much cash in the market, where do these money needs to go? Treasury bonds yield lesser than peanuts, commodity prices are dropping...stock market have suffered major selloff of late.... so what? buy gold? Well, may not be a bad thing but not a preferred. Why?

Simple, we need to understand what's the main issue here.

1) US debt problem is not new, the situation in US does not gets worse only of late.

2) Neither is Euro debt problem, so what if banks starts to fail? let them be. only the strong survives

3) Asia's economy is relatively strong and the next decade and beyond it will be Asia led by China and India.

4) Asian currency will rise with the fall of US dollar (continuous quantitative easing)

5) The problem today is 80% confidence crisis, 20% real financial problem.

What if France lose its AAA rating? - not surprising since US "lost" it too. Impact will be negligible. What if French banks incur major lost from the exposure to the euro governement debts? The damage is already done... Germany needs to take lead and work out the revamp to lead Europe out of the woods. I just don't think Italy will fall as many have feared.

The hedge funds and foreign institution funds need to pay dividend and where else to park their money to work for them if not Asia? For every major selloff like the one we've seen in the last few days, things are bound to recover at least 30% in the next 9 months or so.... so what's your take? I'm a buyer.

US market a dip or a start of the double dip?...

2011-08-04T14:15:00.000-07:00

This is a very emotionally challenging moment...with the US Dow Jones index plunging close to 4.5% while the Nasdaq closes down >5%... S&P wiped out more than 1.28tri dollars in value... so just when the majority of the public felt the slightest tinge of relieve that the US manage to avoid a default, the stock market is being shorted on the ground that the US economy outlook is growing negative.... the continuous fear of Euro crisis...plus the impending job reports tomorrow...

So what is real message here? Is the economy really in trouble? or perhaps US re-entering another recession?

My opinion is this... Today's fall is merely caused "categorically valid" fear by hedge funds heading the pack to reduce risk exposure to the equity market and perhaps repositioning their portfolio for the next 2-3 quarters...

So is the spectre of QE3 getting stronger with today's selloff in equity? Yes, just look at the VIX.

As a matter of fact, QE3 looks almost certain should the job reports re-affirm investors' fear on the streets...US dollar value will continue to slide 3-6 months down the road. While the dollar will suffer because of the perception of a likely introduction of QE3, the impact to the equity market may not be a big as some may expect if it happens... What happen to day is people are hoarding cash instead of investing... people are held back by their fears to invest for the future and all the negative data released of late certainly reaffirm that.

Anyway, rule of thumb in investing is to keep some cash at least 30% of your total investment capital have to be in cash for opportunity like this... Main sectors that investors should take advantage of is the technology sector in my opinion. Tech will fare well as compared to the rest.

I personally don't believe this is the beginning of a "double dip"... but merely a short pullback in the stock market.... Keep a cool head and think rationally. Don't let the crowd fool you.

Like I mentioned in my earlier posting, stay hungry(look out for opportunity) and stay foolish(discard the herd mentality). Asia market will not be spared of the selloff but it will only be a short dip not and am not going to change my outlook on the equity market for the next 6 to 9 months from now...

Stock market...buy, sell or do nothing.

2011-08-02T11:54:00.000-07:00

Well now that Obama has sign the debt bill into law, people are worried with the spending cuts and the impact on economy of the US that has a slightly above 400mil population... To be honest, the resolution to the debt issue is a no brainer and its merely how the politicians wanted to use it to score points. Regardless, spending cuts and tax structure revamp (impacting the rich) is essential, not cool but necessary.

Anyway with regards to US equity market I am very bullish on how the market will move in the next 6-9 months. US companies with exposure to Asian market particularly China and India will register growth and those with extremely well managed ones are going to continue to report extraordinary growth and earning reports down the road.

KLCI, on the other hand is expected to break 1600 soon... selective companies in sectors such as property, construction, plantation and leisure and hospitality is expected to lead the rise.

Stay hungry, stay foolish... don't follow the crowd.

By the way, the US will keep its AAA ratings... that's for sure.

US debt ceiling and its implication...

2011-07-27T19:03:00.000-07:00

Well the problem that US is facing today is a classic case of financial mismanagement or in layman term spending more than what we earn. US have been spending way to much, way to fast. USD14.3 trillion debt is enormous and that will take probably half a century to repay that amount for an economy the size of US.

Between Boehner vs Reid's plans, I would personally prefer the latter, no doubt about that.
However the US congress have to realize that no matter which route they choose, spending cuts and tax increase is imminent. Austerity measures must be taken if US is really serious of preventing the debt problem from spiraling out of control. Simple concept of life, when overspent, you cut and rebudget future spending. No one can continue to borrow and life luxurious life forever especially in this case, we're talking about hundreds of millions of Americans future, the future of their children.

US politicians should understand the repercusion and not keep pushing this to the 11th hour. While it was claimed that there is a Plan B being put up as we speak, it should not contain anything unexpected beyond what was mentioned above, that is spending cuts + tax increase. The tax increase may not have to be a blanket measures but expect it to be implemented on selective groups -mainly the rich.

The whole world is watching and we all know US will not let the country default its payment and neither would Obama go down as the 1st US president that leads the country to a default.
2nd, we know the problem and we know what must be done for the good of the nation.
Politicians should sit down objectively and put their difference behind and work out a viable plan. There will be no winner or loser in this case, whichever plan gets implemented the American people will be the ones absorbing the impact.

Bear in mind that the longer they delay the resolution to the deadlock, the bigger the repercusion. Reputation is at stake here. Credit ratings is almost guaranteed to be downgraded from AAA. Bottomline, the delay is uncalled for.

A lesson to be learn for countries around the world... as my parents used to say... richness can only be sustained with prudent spending, continuous savings and educated investment. No one can deny that.

Time to buy some serious stocks!!!

2011-07-14T20:09:00.000-07:00

We have seen the rally and the consolidation and despite the gloomy outlook in US economy and the on going debt ceiling stalemate, the world economy will rise and perform better than expected. Similarly, I am expecting Malaysian economy perform in the similar trend...
The GE13 is not going to be around the corner as many have anticipate or perhaps I should say the BN had wanted the rest to believe...
Putting that aside, corporate earning results will continue to rise better than expectation for most of the "elite" pool of companies and now is the time to buy in serious volumes...
I expected the stock to rise in the next 4-6 weeks from now. We can all witness.
Particularly preferred is Boustead, DRBHicom, Dialog, Genting and Perisai in that sequence.

KLCI movement this week...

2011-07-03T10:56:00.001-07:00

Well, Yingluck Thaksin has done it!... well done to the red shirt. The party surely has a lot on its plate... particularly important is the 40% increase in minimum wage.
Anyway, in Malaysia the country is facing the Bersih 2.0 rally this Saturday so what does that means to the stock market?
To be honest, i think the stock market has already factored that in.... no surprises, the only thing is if UMNO led gov really go all out to stop the gathering either through ISA, EO, Police arrestment of all suspects with yellow theme, then it will likely be a no event but the chances of that happening would be less than 5%. Why?... simple.

First, does the country has enough jail space? 2nd, it would instantly be labelled as Libya no.2.
Malaysia's involvement in any human right related matter would be viewed as a joke. Unless of course if the politicians are too dumb to realize the impact of their actions.
First, I do agree having the rally will affect business... but surpressing them would be an insult to democracy. So why don't give then a space and ask them to gather there in peace. It can be used as a way to gauge the support of Bersih and at the same time if the number is very high, BN should know what to expect in GE13 and on the other hand, if the turn out is low, it would be a slap on the face to the opposition parties. Either way, I see BN is set to gain valuable info from this rally to prepare themselves for GE13.

Thailand's opposition win is a sign for BN that no one stays in power forever unless you turn into communism like China, else its common to switch power to mitigate abuse of power and complacency. Be a gentleman BN, don't act like a coward and last I want is for other countries to view Malaysia as a communist country with no law and act barbarically to silent critics.

I value my investment and hope those stupid politicians don't screw up my big plans.

Stocks to rise and fall...

2011-06-29T00:50:00.000-07:00

Well, if you're superstitious we have certainly past the time of the year where its the most inauspicious day for stock investment market....so what now? bullish or bearish?
I think Greece will take the money and pass the austerity measures to pave way for continuous borrowing... Europe will not want to experience the impact of Greece's default, so is US.
Asia, basically don't care too much of Greece and if you ask me, you can't keep borrowing money to feed a broken financial system, you need to restructure and the measures are usually painful in the beginning. Afterall, the government screwed up and should have taken steps to prevent this.

Anyway, with much observation and some statistical data (courtesy of a friend) on some of the volume transactions in KLCI, I am 99% sure the stock market is poised to blow past the all time high soon. Fingers' crossed :p
Well, my personal stocks of favourite are Dialog, Perisai, YTLLand, DRBHCOM, Genting, & UEMLand

Stocks I would shun are XOX, MSM, UOA, Mclean, Gpacket. :p

Dialog a buy...

2011-06-21T08:54:00.000-07:00

Ok, stocks have been flat for a while now and despite the negative sentiments of uncertainty due to the upcoming election, Dialog remains strongly supported ~RM2.75-2.85 range.

The proposed Petronas ~RM50 billion Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) in Pengerang, southern Johor, is expected to benefit oil and gas (O&G) players like Dialog Group Bhd and PCHEM.

Dialog, an integrated specialist in technical services in the O&G and petrochemical industry, and the company already has a major presence in Pengerang and the O&G construction segment

The company certainly stands to benefit from the RM50 billion investment by Petronas,
Dialog which already has a progressing terminal project in Pengerang has established itself a significant presence in the O&G downstream segment and has a track record of building various Petronas’ plants across the country.

Today's stock price looks cheap and definitely good for buying in anticipation of a small rally come Jul-Aug.

I remain very bullish of Dialog's 3-6 months stock price. Target RM3.40 in the next quarter.

XOX another scandal by SC?

2011-06-13T00:16:00.000-07:00

Well, like it or not the IPO process is not simple and costly.
Also let me tell you its utter waste of resources to list a company like Mclean and XOX in particular. Despite Bursa claim to want to attract more foreign investors to Bursa, tightening of listing rules and regulations, etc... we have these 2 of late that are hypothetically a "good" for listing company but the development that surrounds them are highly questionable especially XOX whereby the company's timing in IPO, pricing, quarterly results, all were there to show Bursa does not have what it takes to prevent such companies from getting listed going forward unless, SC is willing to face the fact and revamp.
The ones losing out most are the retailers so unless we want to drive investors away from IPO, Bursa needs to change.

Why KLCI cannot move despite Goldman Sachs's call?

2011-06-09T01:55:00.000-07:00

Well, many people always ask me why KLCI seems to be living in an isolated world and the stocks go up and down in a manner that is oblivion to the world market movement in general??
I will tell you why despite an overweight call on the malaysian equity, KLCI remains like shit.
One reason, lost of confidence in the government's leadership and credibility to lead the country with integrity, honesty and success. The perception of corrupted judiciary system, corrupted police force (not all from chief to constable, I hope) is what causes this market to behave pathetically most of the time. Even CNBC don't wanna talk about malaysia at all. Shit its damn frustrating to waste such a great nation away by having incompetent leadership. Brain drain has to be stop at all cost if we want to save this nation.
Look at the news today about evidence of police "executing" 3 youths that police claimed to be suspects of gang robbery. After reading all the info, I don't feel safe at all, let alone foreign investors. Sad day for Malaysia.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/three-executed-while-kneeling-before-cops-says-lawyer/

DRBHCOM poised to rise?...

2011-06-06T23:35:00.000-07:00

Ok, the Islamic banking merger with Bank Islam seems to be hitting a snag....

pos malaysia value unlocking will accelerate from here and more "news" is expected to be flowing to the public soon....

Technically speaking, the stock is looking strong and well supported at a 2.17-2.24 range.

Local institution is net buyer for a while now... more aggressive share purchase is expected from here until the month of Jul-Aug timeframe.... watch the stock closely...

Personally, I expect the stocks to reach RM3 within this year and for Q3, RM2.75 is within reach...

Mclean IPO, what happen??

2011-06-01T22:27:00.000-07:00

Well, my previous posting that MClean price will stabilize at 29sen seems to be invalid now that this company posted a pretax los of ~RM200k. barely a month since this stock got listed.
Hell, no one would ever expected that a company who got screened and approved by SC will still post a loss ~3 weeks after IPO!!!
I have one comment for SC, the research house (Kenanga), Bankers who prepare approved the prospectus, fuck you and may you rot in hell. This is worse than broad daylight robbery, its pure CBT and those responsible should be arrested and put in jail to restore the trust of the investment community towards KLCI.
Knowing damn well that the company's financial health is not good, the IPO is still approved.
Don't fucking tell me that the company only starts to lose money after IPO?
By the grace of God I am not involved in the this stock but I cannot stand the way our government allow these irresponsible and corrupt institutions to cheat money from investors particularly the unsuspecting public who has limited access to the health of the company on its way for IPO.

With the latest quarterly report from this company, I now set the target price for Mclean to reach 9 sen.... its a SELL at all cost!!!

SC, if you have haven't lost your soul to the devil please delist this company from the exchange.

KLCI set to chart all time high?...

2011-05-31T09:54:00.001-07:00

Well, many believe the general election 13th is around the corner for Malaysia and justified that it was the reason why the KLCI is in a sideway or consolidation mode... of all the sudden today the composite index jump close to 20 points and created a bullish engulf pattern on the previous day close. So is this a sign of more to come?, we may ask ourselves?

Few points to note:

1) Governement's decision to raise the electricity tariff signals that najib is willing to push on for more reforms - which is good for the long run and economic health of the country

2) Such unfriendly decision pertaining to item #1 above will need time for it to sink into the people of the country - election is not going to be July this year because Najib needs time for the people to forget and adjust

3) Likely that the government will reduce more subsidies in the near future and also the intro of GST - good move in the eyes of foreign investors

4) Najib's administration needs money for GE13 campaign after huge spending in the Sarawak election - stocks to move up to allow "bankers" to unlock cash and provide funding.

I pesonally feel election is going to be next year Q1 but then who knows what the PM has in mind...

So in short, KLCI should be on its way to create all time high from here before pulling back to close at ~1625 by the end of 2011.

Note: To those who are superstitious, from feng shui perspective, June is a bad month though... but I beg to difer... we'll see how it turns out though.

Equity,a sit out or buy in?

2011-05-23T10:23:00.000-07:00

Since my last posting on Perisai, the stock has since went up to beyond 80 sen and come back down to about the same level when I posted the trading buy call...
Anyway, if you're "superstitious" then its a bear from now till Aug-Sep timeframe afterall we're in May and we all know what the saying is for May.... and you should go on a break from equity and take a long deserve holiday while keeping your cash in non equity forms.

On the other hand, knowing fully well that Malaysia is on the verge of its general election (13th, likely end of the year), and the many projects being announced particularly the Petronas projects in Johor state, and also the many privatisation plans for list of companies under Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar and Khazanah's selling of its GLCs' stake is to some extent can be viewed as positive developments for KLCI.

Bear in mind that the government (BN) needs money for their election campaign and apparently Syed Mohktar is one of BN/UMNO main banker, the list of privatisations will happen soon because it will free up cash and return much to the banker.

In particular DRBHCOM tranformation is going to accelerate, Bank Islam and Bank Muamalat will merge and DRB will emerge as main if not the sole owner. TCubes will go into oblivion. The news of the myemail appears to be a marketing gimmick for shareholders to unload.

So what does it means for investors on the street? Buy selective counters with relation to BN/UMNO might be a good start. Afterall, >90% of the counters in KLCI are junks most of the time... mainly due to lousy management and incompetent SC.

Well, IPOs are a good investment too but my rule will be to sell within the first 1 minute of listing. Like it or not, there are more MClean counters in the future so as long as the SC remains what it is, its the first 1 minute transaction for me.... take IJacobs for example, those who did would have made few folds... :) those who don't just might have waited too long that the shit hits the fan, at the very least Ijacobs is still above IPO price... anyway MClean deserve the title of "The fastest decline in IPO price in history so far" thanks to all those who partake in the IPO process, Kenanga et all.... you sucks.
Think the stock is going to stabilize at 29sen.

PERISAI ready to bounce?..

2011-05-10T02:03:00.000-07:00

Perisai has been on the slide from 88sen since 20th April and hits a support level of 72.5sen today.... will the stock rebound in the next few days? Technically if volume picks up and the stock hold above 71.5 sen, the stock is expected to recover its losses in the next few days...

Well trade with care cause the KLCI is under much selling pressure such as May effect, increase in interest rates, further monetary tightening by bank negara, political unrest and election uncertainty factor. We can still earn from other market of course but I think perisai has good trading prospect.

Despite the shitty market, think this counter is a good buy afterall the selloff lately and the price looks rather attractive. You decide.

Malaysia Brain Drain follow up...

2011-05-09T10:00:00.001-07:00

Courtesy from an article I read by Koon Yew Yin. Malaysia brain drain is serious but to the BN/UMNO in particular this is likely to have exceeded their party KPI to drive out more non bumniputra to leave the country for political gain.

http://english.cpiasia.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2175:malaysias-brain-drain-government-in-perpetual-denial-&catid=211:koon-yew-yin&Itemid=193

Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, the true leader.

2011-05-09T09:26:00.000-07:00

Read the article from MAlaysian Insider and for once, I am convinced that not all BN MPs are useless and lives a cowardy life. Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, I salute you and for a sure thing, the rakyat will vote for you to lead us in the next government in the making come GE13. God bless those good leaders like Islamic Spriritual Leader Nik Aziz (tok guru)-Menteri Besar Kelantan, Lim Guan Eng, Tan Sri Bernard Dompok and Datuk Seri Anwar, Tengku Razaleigh.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/whats-wrong-with-christian-pm-asks-bn-minister

This is what I call great leadership and man of principle. Thank you for standing up for majority of the rakyat as for reality no parties in the country is disputing Islam as the official religion as its been listed in the constitution.
UMNO is creating unrest based on baseless news created by some slime balls good for nothing faggots in UMNO. MCA, MIC, where are your courage? And worst the PM is condoning all this?!?

TELL ME WHY THE FUCK WOULD THE FOREIGN INVESTORS COME TO A COUNTRY LIKE THIS???
No wonder the country is not progressing economically and the ringgit is 3x behind the US and Aus and 2.4x behind Singapore a country a few 10x smaller than Malaysia.
HEll the stock market is also fucking shitty of late!!
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Malaysia's brain drain holding back economy...

2011-04-28T11:33:00.000-07:00

April 28, 2011KUALA LUMPUR, April 28 — More than one million Malaysians live abroad, the World Bank said today, adding that policies favouring Malays are holding back the economy, causing a brain drain and limiting foreign investment.

In a Bloomberg news service report today, World Bank senior economist Philip Schellekens was also quoted as saying that foreign investment could be five times the current levels if the country had Singapore’s talent base.

“Migration is very much an ethnic phenomenon in Malaysia, mostly Chinese but also Indian,” Schellekens (picture) told Bloomberg in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday ahead of the report’s release today.

Governance issues and lack of meritocracy are “fundamental constraints” to Malaysia’s expansion because “competition is what drives innovation,” he said.

Malaysia’s growth fell to an average 4.6 per cent a year in the past decade, from 7.2 per cent the previous period.

Singapore, which quit Malaysia in 1965, expanded 5.7 per cent in the past decade and has attracted more than half of its neighbour’s overseas citizens, according to the World Bank.

Malaysia has in recent years unveiled plans to improve skills and attract higher value-added industries.

The World Bank conducted an online survey in February of 200 Malaysians living abroad in conjunction with the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

They cited better career prospects, social injustice and higher wages as their main reasons for leaving, the Washington-based lender said in the Bloomberg report.

Singapore has absorbed 57 per cent of Malaysia’s overseas citizens, with almost 90 per cent of those crossing the border ethnic Chinese, the World Bank said.

“If Malaysia has the investment environment of Singapore and also had the innovation and skills environment of Singapore, then foreign direct investment inflows into Malaysia could be about five times larger,” Schellekens said in the Bloomberg report.

“They need to boost productivity and strengthen inclusiveness.”

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has pledged to roll back the country’s NEP-style policies but he also told the Umno assembly last year that the government’s social contract of providing benefits to Bumiputeras cannot be repealed.

According to the Bloomberg report, Najib has eased some rules to woo funds, including scrapping a requirement that foreign companies investing in Malaysia and locally listed businesses set aside 30 per cent of their Malaysian equity for indigenous investors. Last year, he unveiled an economic transformation programme under which the government identified US$444 billion (RM1.3 trillion) of projects from mass rail transit to nuclear power that it would promote in the current decade.

“If everything is implemented as they say, Malaysia is going to be a star economy,” Schellekens told Bloomberg. “The problem is implementation.”

One word, BN has to go.

Courtesy of The Malaysian Insider news portal.

How government screw POS Malaysia and ...

2011-04-22T00:34:00.000-07:00

One example of why foreign funds will never be interested with KLCI is the latest 1 malaysia email project.
This is a classic example of how pos malaysia is screwed after khazanah have decided to disposed of its stake. Now DRBHCOM, if they get POS and this 1 malaysia email thingy is imposed on all GLCs to use the service to notify its customers instead of snail mail, then DRBHCOM is screwed too.

Why KLCI is not moving in tandem with regional and world stock markets?...

2011-04-21T23:48:00.001-07:00

Well, many people that I came across did ask me, hey why the KLCI is behaving in the opoposite manner particularly when the world markets rally? What the fuck is wrong with the market or am I missing something?!?
Ok, this is my answer.

KLCI is largely a local stock market with less than 10% in foreign fund manager participating on the average of 3 years. Most of the stocks in the bourse are inter-related and has many political influency due to the head of the companies particularly glaring are those GLCs.

More than 65% of the trading volume are coming from either EPF or other government institutions. The ultimate reason why we cannot move in similar trend when the world market rally is because mainly these foreign funds are not buying into the local market because of the unpredictability of the companies in terms of prospect. Why?, because the companies get contracts through networks and contacts rather than capability.

I'm not saying all who get have no capability to execute the project but rather most of these companies are stronger in their network than their ability. Unless you have very reliable contact to provide constant environment updates to you, you're expose to high risk of being caught in surprise by some decision that does not make sense in corporate world or rather the best interest of the companies affected.

Also the liquidity of stocks floating in the market is so low that many foreigh fund cannot participate and with the rule of 30% foreign ownership in local companies intact, it further adds salt to the already untasty meal.

Despite the above, I'm not saying KLCI is not a place for retailers to invest but if you compare to other stock markets like Hang Seng, NTSE, Nasdaq, Nikkei... KLCI really sucks big time hence why would big foreign fund managers even bordered with KLCI? Having said that, small investors should be even more careful especially those uncles and aunties who are buying with life savings... :)

To be successful traders in KLCI, one has to be aware of the political situation and also the relationship of the companies involved to lower the risk. You don't want to be hit later and worst not knowing what hit you.

KLCI stock market progress....

2011-04-17T19:51:00.000-07:00

Sarawak election results are predictable and have played out as expected...
So is the KLCI.... :)
Stock market is expected to outperform regional markets and rise above 1585 soon...
Those who bought as adviced during the sell off last week, congrats... those who don't you can always buy in now....

POS Malaysia stake... sold to....?

2011-04-14T19:29:00.000-07:00

Well, Khazanah will have its board meeting today to decide on the successful bidder for its major stake in Pos Malaysia....
Sources mentioned that only DRBHCOM and Scomi were the finalists that will be considered by the board. For those who have been in the market long enough and have done their homework will know that between the 2 companies, DRBHCOM will emerge the winner.... 90%... Why I said so?

All these are relative comparison which favours DRBHCOM:
1) Good corporate governance
2) Strong balance sheet and financial capability
3) High ability to unlock Pos's value - value and profit maximization

I would be very dissapointed if Scomi emerge as the winner.

Regardless, whether DRBHCOM gets the stake or not, it's stock price is still valued at above RM3 no matter which method you use to assess and evaluate the company.

Recent selloff in KLCI...

2011-04-12T02:04:00.000-07:00

Hey, many are caught in surprise by the recent selloff and were scrambling to cover the loss for those with margin... sigh what an ironic situation for the government?
Huge selloff on the week the government are promoting itself to investors worldwide? come on, its a total disgrace and outright lack of trust in the government's GTP, ETP that triggers the selloff, whatever plans it has, the investors just don't give a shit.

Well there is also that the fear of uncertainty due to the impending Sarawak election this coming Sat and many are saying due to the huge crowd turn out for PR compared to BN, it signals the folks in the state is ready to move on after decades of poverty and mediocre improvement in lifestyle and basic infrastructure of the largest state in the country.

So every election the stocks go down, and there is no surprise for this round either. Question is what difference does it make? We survived the Japan earthquakes and mid east unrest pretty well and do you expect me to believe that only lately the external effect becomes more prominent?! Fuck la, its the increase in risk aversion due to local election...

My advice, BN is not likely to lose the state by having majority but its not going to be the same... What does that got to do with the stocks in KLCI?? Well, some stocks might be affected, CMSB and some others ;) ... other than that, life goes on...

So should we sell, hold or buy? My take is we buy during these silly selloff. Bear in mind only about 25% of the stocks in KLCI is worth the effort buying. The rest are just craps.

Seal bullish run to remain?

2011-04-10T10:10:00.000-07:00

With the many wood related counters, Seal is definitely one of the cheap and highly recommended for trading buy... while fundamentally the Japan reconstruction will benefit this company its the cheapest of the many in this theme....demand will rise significantly soon....chart wise, its still bullish regardless of the situation in Japan in dealing with the many aftershocks...

Watch out... if it breaks 64 sen, it will likely fly...

DRBHCOM's spectacular run!

2011-03-30T07:30:00.000-07:00

DRBHCOM just continue to rise with both local institution and retailers loading up on the stock in anticipation of equity market recovery and future growth story for the conglomerate.... Latest news of DRBHCOM's bid for POS stake from khazanah is not a surprise... on offer price alone, DRBHCOM is certainly one of the favourite to clinch the deal. Whether the deal will benefit DRB in the long run? the answer is YES. Strategically the stake will enable DRBHCOM to "unlock" more values.... not surprising if DRBHCOM will embark on more value unlocking activities in the future given the positive sentiment on the equity market...

Like I said, its management has done a great job since the turn over and I expect the stock to rise further and hover at probably ~RM2.50 before going further depending on the market condition and impending news and announcement.
Congratulations to those who follow and bought earlier... :)
Stellar ROI indeed!!!

YTLLand... a buy

2011-03-30T07:20:00.000-07:00

The launch of The Capers was rather expected, all the condominium tower units were sold out. Currently, the commercial offerings include the recently completed d7 and soon-to-be completed d6 boutique offices project. While two others, d2 and d5, will be launched soon... Like I said, the stock is poised to gain much from all the future projects in line for launch.

Whether the MRT is going to take off or not, this stock is going to go beyond RM2.30 soon...

Bull in timber related stocks...

2011-03-28T22:11:00.000-07:00

Today Taann, Jtiasa, WTK, Lingui, Mieco all moved up pretty well.... decent gain in anticipation of the reconstruction of Japan. Realistically, these companies will benefit for sure but the question will be when will the bottomline be reflected by the increase in demand?
No doubt most of these companies are relatively stable... these run up are very sentimental and are very ahead of fundamental in my opinion. For those who managed to jump in prior to today should consider taking profits off the table....
There is 99% the reconstruction will start(likely in 2H) but there is a 1% chance it might not happen so soon should the nuclear disaster situation worsen or in case there is more post quake disaster that follows... we never know.

DRBHCOM on the rise...

2011-03-22T01:22:00.001-07:00

This company certainly is one of the best in recovery of the equity market and has been attracting steady interest from investors... Well with today's market performance, many who bought in the past may have started to lock in the gain... its perfectly alright if you want to do so....
Will the stock continue to climb? Likely, the large seller at RM2.15 is merely a small bump... will pass with ease soon... :)
In summary, great company with great return and more to come...

KLCI target by Q3'11....

2011-03-21T00:39:00.000-07:00

Well, Japan is making very good progress and Bahrain is dead serious in addressing the problem its people are facing despite the controversial demolition of the pearl square landmark... perhaps they want to apply the not in sight not in mind concept...:p
Anyway, world equity will start picking up from here in my opinion... KLCI is no excuse as well, KLCI target by Q3 is 1625 points... let it ride...

Japan crisis, what now for the equity market?

2011-03-17T10:15:00.000-07:00

With Japan nuclear crisis on the line, Mid east and Arab's protests... what's the future for stocks?
If you look at all these issues, risk aversion is high and investors are clearly worried about the worst with regards to the nuclear crisis.
So my take is this,...
1) Japan will be successful in containing the nuclear plants from further meltdown.
2) Mid east and Arab unrest will fizzle out over time as Bahrain steps up the crack down and honestly we should discount Libya from the equation as the impact on oil is negligible.
3) Overall world economy is on the recovery and latest data in Q1 2011 is very positive and with the imminent reconstruction of Japan, which will contribute to the demand of natural resources and greatly benefit the economy particular countries that exports to Japan...

Therefore, it's a buy on equity....

Japan's earthquakes and nuclear disaster...

2011-03-14T23:31:00.004-07:00

This is an unfortunate period for many people in the world especially those living in Japan and some of them who have their lives thorn apart overnight... the earthquakes damage were well contained but the damages brought by the tsunami were devastating.... to make things worst, the nuclear reactors are exploding 1-by-1. With the northeast wind blowing strongly, it will make the radiation spread faster than what the specialist can anticipate... Its sad to say that things are going to get worst for Japan from here... I do hope they are not hit by another earthquakes (up to half the magnitute of the first one) else, i think it will take decades for Japan to rebuild for sure....

How does this impact the economy? Well, Japan stock market has certainly shows the true pciture today by dropping more than 14% on top of the first trading day (post quake) loss of 6.2%. Oil prices continue to drop and world wide equity market continue to be sold down in view of the great uncertainty surrounding the world today. Many people even talked about the end of the world and how all these are actually signs before the ruptures.... I personally think there is a correlation to that.

Bear in mind that should the situation in Japan gets worst, the world economy will too and certainly the recovery in the US will be affected and this will cause a ripple effect throughout the rest of the world.... KLCI is no exception, you can have all the ETPs with billions of projects being rolled out but if the economic state of the world is in a down turn, not even a "100bil" MRT project will keep the optimism alive.

Worst case, if the nuclear crisis in Japan escalated higher then we'll likely see the stock market taking a plunge of a record size...
Investors should adopt the wait and see strategy before buying in bulk... there are many side effect of this crisis this time...

Japan

2011-03-14T23:31:00.003-07:00

Japan

2011-03-14T23:31:00.001-07:00

SPSETIA-WB a bargain...

2011-03-07T19:31:00.000-08:00

Well, I have to bring this up.... SPSetia, target price beyond RM7.60 but its warrant is only RM1.54 which translate to a discount of 15% at least... why is that so?
Now is this a situation of market efficiency issue or is there something in the pipeline about SPsetia that the public are not aware of which keeps the warrant from matching its worth?

If you are familiar with the industry, some people are starting to say the property market is cooling down with the high oil price and rising inflation in the emerging market and blah blah...
hey, the housing market might not be able to distance itself from the risk aversion the the general public may have due to the unrest in mid east and Arab region... but the growth we see in the world economy in general is very much intact and US in particular is very encouraging...
today we say the world economy recovery risk being put to halt due to the above issues, tomorrow things may change... perhaps Ghaddafi finally relented and step down and Arab manage to reverse the dissatisfaction of its people by offering cash distribution and more job creation as well as wealth sharing....

My point is, we're on track to grow and equity is certainly the better way to grow your money if not the best bet... SPsetia will certainly lead the recovery of the KLCI... hence at 2013 expiry, its warrant certainly have future (lots of it) in my opinion.

On a separate note, DRBHCOM is moving up.... :) Good job to those who bought in during the low.... this is just the beginning...

Impact of Mid East and Arab unrest on world equity market...

2011-03-01T20:13:00.001-08:00

Well, many after seeing today's decline in their holdings are sure to feel confuse now that even with the relatively stabilize oil price due to Opec commit to fill in the gap left by Libyan oil output disruption, good corporate earning results, US QE2, etc.... now many will ask where's the fucking money? All of the sudden people just loose faith in the economic recovery story even after many convincing data worldwide?

Let's be honest, even without the crisis in Libya the oil supply will be trailing the demand due to the economic growth and increasing consumption worldwide... almost 90% of the analysts agree that we should long the market for 2011.... and it will hit all time high for Asia's stock markets...
So today's situation seems rather at odd eh?...

Take Malaysia for example...well, you have to know that the election in Sarawak is looming and that tells you the gov needs cash... right and those money will come from the listed GLCs....
check the shareholding changes of late and you'll see >80% of the gov related party is selling...

Also, many are thinking after the panic selling last week things are going to get better... well unfortunately its not so direct.... its going to likely get worst before it gets better...
Buying now may not be as bad as some may think but if you can buy lower(if it happens) then its great but it takes more than science to guarantee that we buy at the lowest possible... While it may not be the best, its ok to start buying selectively... my prediction is the worst KLCI will hit is probably 1453 points and bear in mind this index is only on the 30 giant stocks in the malaysian market.... the rest is not represented.

You think about it...

Sell E&O!

2011-02-27T22:02:00.000-08:00

A quick update, based on the medicre profit and dissapointing results from E&O its a sell.
Target price will be 92sen.
I want to reiterate a buy call on DRBHCOM which I have posted earlier and this time HDBS has futher comfirm the TP above RM3 that is RM3.55.
I'm certain it will hit above RM3 this year provided no major world economic crisis.

When external factor clouds the market...

2011-02-23T22:12:00.000-08:00

Hey, all of the sudden the market turns bad and everyone was wondering what the heck went wrong and is there more correction or should we just wait and while we're waiting what share to buy? what are the safe counters...
Well, in today's situation one of the way is to look for a company with strong potential of growth and re-rating. While there are quite a few, my favourite would be Ho Wah Genting Bhd. This company is one of the many who will ride out this externally driven excursion in style... with the rising commodity price of the tin ore and the huge prospect of supply in the Perak state under its rule for the next 8+ years, you bet the company will gain much from the mining operation.

A definite buy with a target of RM1.25 in a couple of quarters to come.

DRBHCOM to begin its run?

2011-02-18T08:24:00.000-08:00

DRBHCOM rose 10 sen today dragging most of its warrants along. Since I last posted about this stock as a must buy about a week ago, this stock has not yet moved much but will today's movement mean anything to us? Stock price well supported with heavy buying on the warrants indicated that investors are anticipating stock price appreciation going forward and are leaveraging the warrants which gives higher return in a bull run.

Last financial report was excellent and with more news to come and certainly with today's uptick, it goes to confirm the bullish signal for this stock. Those who bought in last week, good job...and those who didn't its not too late to act.... :)

Stock trend is a classic run up and my personal target, easily beyond RM3.

KLCI down 32 points... so what now?

2011-02-10T02:00:00.000-08:00

Well, many might be surprise by today's market but not for those who follow the financial and equity market news day in day out... before every bull there is always a down time.... ;)
vice versa for the bear....
So my advice is to remain calm and look out for opportunities in the next few days if the market continues to slide... those who keep a portion of cash in their investment plan, its time to open the lock to that chest as fundamentally nothing has changed so why worry...

Sector to focus on should remain O&G, construction/property, commodity and finance.

This should be viewed as a great opportunity rather than a threat to the equity market.

Adios :)

Post CNY stock status review

2011-02-08T06:05:00.000-08:00

Happy Chinese New Year to all chinese folks and to those who celebrate with their friends!!!

Let us see the status of stocks that was highlighted as buy back then in Jan'11.

Mahsing, YTLLand, Mudajya, Boustead all have moved...

E&O, L&G, TA were flat... should keep holding.

OSK was a flop given the prolonged profit taking from investors after a massive run up to RM2.20 within 3 months from OCt'10... however it is still rated a buy with a target price of RM2.60 by Q3 the latest.

Another stock I felt its worth to highlight is the potential in the DRBHCOM. Share price is poised to appreciate further as the bull charge towards the month of March. A definite buy for me.

Property counters updates...

2011-01-25T08:35:00.000-08:00

Ok, now the KLCI has retreated to a reasonable level and its actually the best time pick up stocks in bulk....

Property counters have mostly also been under selling pressure/profit taking, risk aversion due to China's monetary tightening, etc... except for one counter, Mahsing... volume is high and the stock price is holding up very well. CEO is loading up and from my sources confirmed there are going to be a positive piece of news for the stock.

I advocate a buy on this stock.... :) well, its a buy no matter what the conventional chartist may tell you...

Status review....

2011-01-14T00:54:00.001-08:00

Well, 2011 definitely started with a bang for many stock market investors I hope..

Anyway, for those who follow,
YTLLand, Mudajya, Boustead, Mahsing all have started to move... :)
More of those to come.... use the profit taking to your advantage.
Am beginning to feel the bullish mood already...

Hap Seng.....

2011-01-12T00:12:00.000-08:00

Literally look like shit in a bag flying around.... just don't go and grab...
I'm surprise some people still advocate about buying when the company resume trading after annoucing the bonus issue... weird...
We need to think and read between the lines at times.

2011 is here so what now....?

2011-01-06T21:31:00.000-08:00

Well, KLCI is certainly one of the regional top performer in asia equity market since the year 2011 begin. Having gone up close to 50 points in the first week of the 2011 is something many would label as a good start to another bullish year.... while many have started to cash out, alot more have started to join the race towards higher stock prices for the stocks in the portfolio.

So the pertinent question now is should we cash out or stay to ride the bull?
Well no one has a crystal ball that can tell you the answer that's for sure but you can still analyze.
Take a look a few stocks that are conventionally used as proxy towards riding the market.

My personal opinion of the stocks that are worth owning an should buy like there is no tomorrow.
TA, OSK - (Asia equity boom)
YTLLand ( under valued and more news to come)
UNISEM (Rising world semiconductor volume in 2011)
E&O, MAHSING, L&G and IJMLAND (potential sector re-rating and asset reflation)
BOUSTEAD (well diversified and will gain much from the high CPO price)
MUDAJYA (high receivables but good to have due the fact that this counter are poised rise due to the opportunity from the ETP and the GTP plans.

Well, these are what I think personally, you go check it out if in doubt.

Merry Christmas!... have a blessed holiday.

2010-12-24T09:37:00.000-08:00

YTL Land a buy and a must...

2010-12-22T18:51:00.000-08:00

So many good news and so many reasons to buy stocks but this one stock is a must have for the next 5 months... YTLLand, why?

Simple, here are a few...

1) The launch of "The Capers" in 2011.

2) Impending huge asset reflation

3) KL-Sin bullet train potential

4) More project launches in the pipeline since its acquisition of companies with strategic lands from it parent company YTL Corp.

Lastly, please buy with reserve cash, else don't cry foul if later the stock tanks because of some external shock such as Korean wars and you needed the money ... :)

KLCI Bull vs bear....(DRBHCOM)

2010-12-13T01:14:00.000-08:00

In today's situation, both macro and micro economic perspective, most people who follows the financial news will say that the KLCI is trading at a high level... however they also believe it will go higher from here... question is how high and what stock to ride, typical question that none other that ourself will be able to convince and should be convincing ourselves to buy or sell.

So should we be focusing on the potential M&A candidates or perhaps better of on the laggards?
Of late mahy people have came out to comment on the DRBHCOM recent run up and honestly I think this stock is obviously going to have more news in the pipeline (privatisation of subs or spin off, etc) On the potential of more government contracts from defense ministry, I am rather sceptical to that in view of the little material impact even if something along that line does materialize.

Well the stock have rallied close to 40% since Dec 1st and therefore in my opinion its time to take profit and lock in the gain. Sell the stock and buy back when it retreat to ~RM1.70 would be a reasonable way of playing this.

Never get carried away with the sentiment of the bull in today's market....

Boustead, a gold pot?

2010-12-06T05:32:00.000-08:00

The company just posted a ~1.5bil revenue for 3rd quarter 2010 results and announced a 12 sen dividend to be paid by mid of Dec. Impressive track record and company's currently finalizing 2 lucrative projects that is the 60 acres Jln Cochrane land and the 245 acres Batu Cantonment army base land. [Consider this done deal. :)]

HDBSVR recently raised the value of the stock by SOP and value it at RM10.35.

While that's one way of calculating the company's value, we also should consider the potential re-rating of the property sector as a results of improving economy and the large amount of hot money inflow that will land in many Asian countries particularly Malaysia inview of the rising ringgit. Property sector in Malaysia will certainly benefit from the growing confidence and thus lower risk aversion as a result of better liquidity financial system and easy financing from banks.

Also the consistent dividend record of the company in 2010 also further convince many of the healthy cash flow of the company. In my opinion, the company should be valued at min of RM8.50 in the next 9 months.

Kstar, another "subprime" in stock?

2010-12-01T00:44:00.000-08:00

Well, this is another stock that certainly has many caught in surprise when KStar stock price plunge from the opening price of 89.5 sen to 50 sen day low earlier. As usual our Bursa did their part, that is to issue a query to the company...
Come on certainly bursa can do better than this? This is a matter of public interest, its the people's money we're talking about...Obviously many insider tradings took place.... I pity the honest investors out there who hold the stocks in their portfolio...
Especially when the company just posted a pre tax profit of ~20mil about a weeks ago and today the stock erased ~40% of its market cap?? Don't fucking tell me there is nothing but of course, the company can still say that the board of directors are not aware of any activities and will inform Bursa if there is any new development. :)
Well, Yusli do as you would be done by... do you role.!!

E&O setting up for a rise?

2010-11-29T00:17:00.000-08:00

Property laggard?... well, E&O is definitely a name that most people in Penang island is aware of because of the famous hotel by the sea and the many famous projects near Ferringi (Seri Tanjung Pinang, Straights Quay projects). With the relatively large strategic landbank and since the E&O mainly focus on high end residential properties and the fact that the stock has a higher beta and at the same time its a rather liquid stock as well.

Target price remains >RM1.95. Something is brewing in the stock in my opinion.

Happy Thanks Giving!

2010-11-25T07:56:00.001-08:00

Mah Sing.... playing catch up?

2010-11-25T07:21:00.000-08:00

Of late the property and construction companies surely have been hogging the limelight and I believe we're going to to see a re-rating of the entire sector in the near future and an impending asset reflation (a rather significant one) in the next 5 years.

Today Mah Sing breaking away and even broke the RM2 ceiling with >15mil shares exchanged hands and I would say its likely the stock will extend its upward trend for the next few days.

Trading buy is recommended and for those with high risk appetite, Mahsing-CA looks attractive and offer higher leverage.

Note: At the same time Petro Chemical will debut in the KLCI and that might just stir up the market activity and reduce risk aversion among the retailers in particular.

Trade with care and as a rule of thumb always ensure you have your investment goal in mind and keep your emotion shelved.

Property & construction stocks high on M&A

2010-11-23T17:45:00.000-08:00

We have seen lately several companies have been on the spotlight, either being taken over or merging to leverage on each others strength be it capability or branding.

Take over of Sunrise by UEMLand was good for both companies and similarly for Ijmland which has long been under scrutiny by many for being undervalued has finally signed MoU with MRCB to merge into a new entity and take over the listing of both companies.

Another will be the merger of Suncity and Sunway which is probably going to be the last of its kind in these sectors for M&A activities.

While UEMLand is now the largest property counter in a enlarged market capital of ãround RM10bil. While IJMLand and MRCB will now become the 2nd largest with ~7-8bil market cap, its strategic land bank ~in excess of 9000 acres as well as its potential in securing large projects is very promising.

While I personally think RM3.83 would better reflect the value of IJMLand, the price of RM3.65 for IJMLand is about right in my opinion due to the timing and also the huge potential that opens up for the new company.

Salcon.... a good buy?

2010-11-17T20:04:00.000-08:00

With the world economy worrying about the China tightening and the possible European economic stability, many are thinking that there is a possibility of a stock market major correction.

Well, I doubt there will be a major correction, honestly.

The most, some knee jerk reaction here and there.. also take all the opportunity to buy into good stocks and another one I thought is worth mentioning here is Salcon.

Cheap, good prospect and growth and timing is certainly right...

I think its a good buy.

One of the key stock for bull market ahead...

2010-11-14T22:25:00.000-08:00

Well, from now onward, I believe the stock market will continue to rise and chart new highs at least for the next 18 months... yes, that's 1.5 years at the very least.

Apart from waiting patiently for stock prices to appreciates sector by sector, we need to be aware that the most basic indicator of a bull run is the increasing trading volume and stock broking firms most certainly stand to benefit from the swelling in trading volume...

While OSK is pretty much in the limelight for the "rumour" of Maybank take over, TA is still pretty much below its peers....

with 78 sen as of the point of writing, it obvious the stock is attractive for short term traders to load up in preparation of the impending bull run... bear in mind that Dec holiday season is coming and there will be many more good news to come for the equity market as we end the year 2010 and transition into the year of rabbit. As different it will be the bull run in 2011 will likely consists of small rallies throughout the year....

There are many more good stocks that we can talk about but for a start, I view TA as a must have due to its cheap price and prospect in the short run of 6 months.... a pull back lately may be a good opportunity for buying... TP RM1.15.

Invest in gold or in stock markets of emerging economies?

2010-11-09T02:35:00.000-08:00

With all the news of the World Bank president Zoellick calling for gold to be brought back into the global monetary system and with gold prices pushed to above USD1.4k per ounce (record price) is really causing a lot of "excitement" to many people to think whether they should continue to pile their money on gold or the rising stock markets especially the Asia stock markets. At the same time, stock markets continue to chart new highs as well....

Certainly many will think that we can always invest in both gold and stocks...but what's the ratio like?

Like I mentioned previouly stock markets will likely continue to hit new highs for the next 1 year at the very least and with that I would think that investment ratio should be heavily focused on stock with about 20% on gold. Afterall how many chance do we have in our lifetime for us to see through a financial crisis and to ride the recovery? Well, now is the time... :)

Be brave when others are afraid....

QE2, what's the impact...

2010-11-08T01:33:00.001-08:00

Well, USD1.7trillion and it is still not enough.... what makes the Fed thinks USD600bil will do the job? Simple, the Fed just wanted to debase the dollar and narrow the gap between the China Yuan and the USD.

The consequences of this QE2 is obviously going to cause a boost in the comodity prices and eventually things are going to get much more expensive (inflation will creep in). While the rise in the equity market will appear to be giving the people more money or ROI for their investment in stocks, the value of the return actually may have shrunk for anyone investing in the US. Couple by the devaluation of the dollar, it makes matter worst for foreign investors like me....

In my personal opinion, the dollar will continue to devalue to the point of about USD:RM of 1:2.78 range and that's basically the level close to the pre-financial crisis that hit the world Asia in particular. Therefore, I believe the emerging markets will benefit emensely from the 600bil of liquidity that may eventually find its way to the stock markets of these countries..

KLCI will likely reach 1650 by Q1 next year.... at the same time, I think property market will also benefit from this extra cash that is floating around with interest rate close zero.

In conclusion, long equity.

Altera hit USD33 as predicted...!!!

2010-11-04T08:34:00.000-07:00

Well, Altera made it to USD33 as expected and I just have to say, Morgan Stanley probably should fire the analyst who made the comment on downgrade and making comments of the stock will fall to USD24...

Honestly, this stock made me proud cause it just made my day... >30% gain in less than 1 quarter.

E&O poised to rise

2010-10-27T08:16:00.000-07:00

Well, with so many property friendly news recently property counters certainly has not moved abit.... but things are going to be different going forward...In Q4 alone I expect property sector to gain at least 15% from Q3 and just take a look at E&O which certainly look promising from chart perspective and if the stock continue to climb and break above the zero line with volume, i think this will trigger a property rally most certainly.

You can certainly cross check with the heavyweight SP Setia which gain almost 30 sen today.

Immediate recommendation for those with stocks in property...."Let it ride"

Morgan Stanley or S&P 500?

2010-10-25T09:25:00.000-07:00

Many people follows what most analyst are reporting blindly but the number is reducing these days... most people review the data and make the decision after some analysis on their own... While it serves as a guidance to some, many falls as victims of confirmation bias.

I personally have review so many analyst reports in the past and one particular guidance that I find rather reliable in the sense that the projection mostly materialize itself is the S&P stock price guidance, in fact I would say most of them are rather conservative in nature.
Here's the link.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-25/s-p-500-analyst-target-price-changes-for-oct-25-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo
A quick snap shot, Altera and Xilinx both from the FPGA industry is targeted to be $33 and $29 respectively... similar to my earlier Oct 18th posting on these 2 companies.
Well you be the judge who to follow...

Altera Q3 net income almost quadruples!

2010-10-20T08:49:00.000-07:00

Well the results of Altera 3rd quarter earning is stellar comparing to what the company fares a year ago... the company's net income nearly quadruples mainly driven by strong sales from telecommunication and wireless equipment makers. The company reported earning of $217.5mil or 69 cents per share versus $56.7mil, or 19 cents per share a year ago. Analyst had expected 65 cents per share. Revenue rose 84% to a record 527.5mil.

Altera outlook calls for the 4th quarter revenue to grow 3-6% over the 3rd quarter which implies a maximum of $559.2mil compares to what analyst have in mind that is $512mil..

Surprisingly today Morgan Stanley gave a underweight rating on the company with a target share price of $24. Bear in mind that the share is now trading at $29.13 at the point of writing.
Just why are these so called analysts giving a negative outlook on the company when the results clearly shows the opposite??

My comment is simple, these people could have taken a large short position on Altera and Xilinx and are banking that the stock price will go down after hitting a high of $30.50 a few weeks ago. Or perhaps these analysts have more insider information that the rest of us which makes them believe that the stock price will plummet from here on.

From now to $24 that is almost a 25% market cap reduction. At the same time, at current price with the earnings combined so far from all 3 quarters (~$2 per share), Altera will trade at a PE of barely 15. and that is without Q4 result. Assuming Q4 the earning is conservative 50 cents per share, that woull translate to a $2.5 earning per share. with $29.3, the PE will be 11.8.

Personally, I think the comments givent by these bunch of analysts are pure speculation and without any basis to support, at the same time the target price are definitely questionable and I would call for all investors to look into the integrity such negative calls made by these so called analysts purely based on nothing concrete but speculative in nature and definitely with lots of hidden agenda.
Such calls are irresponsible and definitely a joke especially when they are coming from big financial institutions in the US. It is apparent that these people have yet to learn from the mortgage crisis that hit them a couple of years back... Let us all live to witness if these people are real analysts or just a bunch or crappy anal-ysts.

We shall see....

Upgrades for Altera and Xilinx...

2010-10-18T09:01:00.000-07:00

Well, this is just a follow up of what I have posted earlier... today we receives another downgrade on Altera which is a FPGA company which has overtaken its primary rival Xilinx in stock price but keeps getting downgrades from analysts...earlier it was Morgan Stanley, now its RBC Capital.

Reason cited were likely lower orders in China's telecommunication equipment makers. Such expectation are typical ones you expect from analysts since the stocks have rallied more than 15% from the beginning of Q3 this year.

From the chart, fundamental, telecommunication market in Asia, US dollar and the RMB valuation... I think the volume from the chinese companies will increase in 2011.

Therefore with all the above, I declare an upgrade of Altera and Xilinx to outperform Target share price USD33 and USD29 respectively.

Property counters... so what now?

2010-10-18T08:38:00.000-07:00

Well, with all the hoo haa about reducing the property loan to value ratio and requiring higher amount of downpayment for property buyer, RGPT, etc... you name it... that's before the Malaysia 2011 budget...

After the budget...
- 100% loan for those with household income of <=RM3000.
- 50% discount on the stamp duty on loan agreements for residential property less than RM350k.

Gee, the opposite of all the rumour and all unnecessary discussion, comments and concerns put up are totally uncalled for... why such a mismatch in expectation.... not like we're talking about NYSE here but KLCI, come on....

well, personally I find it funny when i heard about the plan to build a RM5bil tower... for what? I thought we still have lots of vacant space in petronas twin towers? Anyway, I think overall the budget is "friendly" towards property sector since there is no downside to stop the momentum of the property sales as well as to cap the value of these properties.

L&G, IJMLAND, E&O and Mah Sing are top picks for me.

Malaysia's 2011 Budget,,, "light at the end of the tunnel"?

2010-10-13T08:28:00.000-07:00

The highly anticipated announcement of Q4 2011....well as usual there are quite a number of large and heavy projects being lined up for major GLCs to benefit from.... Malaysia PM's noble intention is to bring Malaysia out of the middle income trap towards a high income nation, and certainly if at least 80% these projects materialized and were well executed.... it would likely help the country gain closer to its goal above.

However, being a skeptic since I have been following the budget for years now and let me tell you what, it does not take a lot of brains for us to discover that the problem may not lie in not having the right projects but rather how the governement actually follow through those projects and get the receipients of these big contracts to honour their word and complete the projects on time and within the expectation in terms of quality at the very least (we haven't talk about value add that comes from giving these projects to those GLCs).

Regardless, my opinion is this. Having great projects are essential but not a necessity for success. It requires holistic planning and excellent project managers to really drive these projects and ensure they meet the expected completion timeline. When I say excellent, it means commited, well connected, honest, noble and competent. At the same time, the subcontractors who were assigns to work on the projects are also required to possess these values, integrity, competent and well connected.

In summary, the government needs to really look into those the performance of those contractors in the past projects and evaluate if the country should continue to engage them or source new contractors. Bottomline, we need to build a country with quality people to maintain it if we are to achieve a high income nation and a successful one in the future. There is certainly no point in having 1st class infrastructure in the world but living with a 3rd world human capital and mentality.

Lastly, I think its time to sell the stocks in KLCI that have raked in gains. Not like its going to be a double dip in the world economy but rather simple, whatever that goes up will eventually come down before going up again.

Morgan Stanley are you sure?

2010-10-12T09:19:00.000-07:00

While a few among us are guessing Fed's next move... there are many people who are placing high hopes that the Fed will introduce more stimulus package. One interesting comment catch my attention that is Morgan Stanley actually downgraded 2 leaders in FPGA industry.

Well I am not sure how many would concur with that view but personally since I know one of the company relatively well, I am going to say that what Morgan Stanley did was either a great mistake or at least the timing of such report is definitely questionable hence it goes back to the objective of publishing such article and making the downgrade on both Altera and Xilinx.

Reason given are simple: Potential weakness in Asia telecommunication sector. In fact this financial giant actually quote that "visits to telecommunication and original equipment manufacturers in China and India "reveal slower growth in 3G subscribers in China and a much lower profitability in India", which could lead to near term decline in orders from these 2 companies.

Well, first of all in my opinion while the 3G subscribers may decline the infrastructure development will still proceed. When we talk about decline, what's the rate that we are talking about here? Second, how on earth did Morgan Stanley measure the potential decline due to the lower profitability in India? The pressure on gross margin is not so much on Altera but on its customers selling products made from Altera chips to the people of India... similarly goes to Xilinx.

At the same time, allow me to share some of the facts of one of the company, let's take Altera for example.

Stellar financial results for both quarters in 2010 with impressive y-on-y revenue and earning growth, ROE is ~40% and operating margin of close to 37%. Company is on track to gain more market share with its Stratix IVGX family leading the way to market share gain and securing more new sockets from customers who used to be hardcore fans of its main competitor.

In short, it seems that the company is hitting everything right at this point of time, with the chinese government keen on expanding the infrastructure system in China, I don't think the slow down anticipated in China's voracious chip consumption is going to be of any material impact at least not in the short term. When I say short term, that's 3-6 months period.

Chart wise, no matter how pessimistic I could possibly be the stock just appear to be heading north with a target price of USD32.90 at least. That's easily a 3 dollar gain which translate to >10% return. I say BUY since the Q3 earning report is still to be published.

Why England cannot win the World Cup....

2010-06-13T18:52:00.000-07:00

Well, 3 days have gone past since the World cup started and I keep wondering at the beginning of the competition whether England can win this time or perhaps reached the last 4?...
After the first match betwen England and USA, I am convince that we are likely not going to see something different this time as well.
Reasons are as below....

1) The players are too filthy rich
- Rich and young and with all the English lifestyle of a footballer going from clubbing, women, and betting.... these guys just don't have the determination that a footballer is suppose to have to succeed at this level. Mental and physical distraction is the main problem.

2) Lack of team spirit
- With every players trying their best to carve a name for themselves and view this as an opportunity to further enhance their fame, the team lack the team player spirit and too many individuals trying to show case their "talent".

3) Ego
- Englishman ego is another whereby they think they are the favourites and thought too highly of themselves. Such attitude will only bring downfall as the pride is too high for comfort.

4) Commitment to succeed
- These players do not have the spirit to come as a team and deliver the goal as witnessed and this has very much to do with the background and foundation of the human side as most of them come from a relatively comfortable background with very little hardship in life to understand the spirit of working hard for success.

Sad but true....

My personal take is the team are unlikely to even reach last 16 if nothing was done to fix all these.

Kenmark's share price movement going forward?..

2010-06-04T09:27:00.000-07:00

Well, I have seen this company day in and day out back when I was young and little did I expect that the company would be facing such issues since it is an old company and has been around for quite a while now.... While the company directors try to apply for an extension to the 4th quarterly results, it serves as a question mark to many whether there is going to be another case of accounting issue due to unrevealed financial difficulty or there is a conspiracy behind all the missing in action of the company's top management.

Emergence of Datuk Ishak Ismail who swooped up a wopping 21.41% stake in the company just when the share price hit a all time low is interesting and confusing at the same time.

My take: If indeed the company has financial difficulty to sustain the business operations, the workers would not have been paid their salary at the early month of May 2010. Also Datuk Ishak's emergence does not make sense from financial stand point to throw money into a company that is bound to wound up because of accounting fraud even though the amount spent may be relatively unsubstantial for a him. I quite sure there is a twist to the whole thing Ishak may just be a predator who strike at the "right time"... :p

Also I believe the company will announce the resumption of operation next week as there is basically no critical default as claimed by Kenmark's directors yesterday on the payment to EBB.
Having said that, I would stake a bet that from the data and information shared to me, unless I was fed with wrong information, the stock price are likely to further regain its loss next week.

At the point of writing this, the US market is trading sharply lower and the Euro breaking below the $1.20 level against the dollar (expected to even hit $1.15 in due time), I think this whole market environment is going to put Kenmark's share in focus and provided the new directors deliver the promised to get the financial report straighten and resume operation, things are expected to get better for the stock price.

Have a nice 3-day weekend.

Only in Malaysia, believe it or not.....

2010-03-08T11:33:00.000-08:00

I was having a chat the other day about how the market is going to be and all the forecasting actitivities traders are doing in anticipation of the 1H rally and all of a sudden someone mentioned that AEM is picking up and for any normal people in the street, the movement of this stock last Fri was rather surprising since the termination of the MO with Dah Mah Corp over the LCD purchase.

As usual, such activities are deem unusual and as usual Bursa Malaysia issued its SOP of querying the company for the activities and that's going to be all about what Bursa can do.

Has anyone ever remember seeing anyone indicted in the Malaysian soil for insider trading?

Or has anyone lived long enough to tell us whether such thing has ever happened at all?

Well, not that I can recall.

Either all the business and corporate people in this land of possibility (anything ridiculous is all possible) are really damn ethical and professional or there is no bloody body to regulate and monitor the market.

Afterall, only in this land you see selected foreign immigrants who get into the country (legally or illegally) being given citizenship and granted all the special rights almost immediately.

Well, invest wisely as there is always a reason why the currency of this country is still bloody low compared to other developing countries. Time will come when china overtakes in currency superiority and by then, you'll probably see many flocking to china to make money just like how singapore is gaining at the expense of this country.

Well, don't fucking kid me that the 1malaysia thing will work and stem brain drain because i think its doing the exact opposite of its objective. Subtle but real.

2010-01-04T07:58:00.000-08:00

First of all, Happy New Year!!! to all the readers of this blog....I know its has been a while since this blog is active with many exchanges, but I have been occupied with other stuffs in my life... but I'm going to try to write more and share whatever I have for the benefit of everyone including myself... :)

Enough of the intro... let's get back to business.

Generally world equity market will rise, that's a no brainer... similarly I can tell you now, KLCI will have the same trend... and if we're talking about KLCI alone, unless you have tons of cash and luck to trade KLCI futures you just can't make enough to live on stock trading alone... sad to say but its true. In typical case, every investment is suppose to make a return... what differentiates an A list investment from mediocre ones are the performance of the return.

We're talking about 30% per year at least... hence with a 500k capital, it will give you a decent amount of money to sustain your lifestyle and at the same time grow your capital base...While not all in the working class have a ready cash pile of 500k at their disposal, given a typical range of 50k savings for a person who worked for 5-10 years, you should at least generate 30% return from that cash pile and grow them to become your retirement fund.

well if you're already trading for a living, you're basically considered retired already... :p

The market is going to boom and the sector that is going to lead the return of the world's greatest investment tool is property. E&O, IJMLand, Mah Sing, SPSetia and hunza are the ones and in that order. E&O is a well managed company as far as I know and their floating shares are large enough to provide the liquidity for trading... also the size of their landbank is the largest there is in terms of RM if they are to be developed. Easily, E&O could fetch RM1.79 from current level...IJMLAnd is banking on their waterfront project The Light in Penang to spearhead their profit, if executed well, this counter could well be RM3.40 in 6 months down the road.

One of Mahsing's key project which is also in Penang if executed well, will increase the profitability and reputation of the company in the northen region of the country and further cement the company as a reputable developer. The project is ~RM1.5bil which is going to provide a handsome return. RM2.55 is not surprising...SP setia is the big brother who are the ones that most fund managers tend to hold some just to make sure they are exposed to this sector and also a stable company with a relatively solid reputation and balance sheet.

Now which one is considered to be the best cash generating machine, it all boils down to the operating income.... you go dig it out yourself.

Like I always prefer, if you think the mother share is going up, why not buy the warrant as well...? E&O, IJMLAnd, SP Setia all have warrants... they provide better leverage and higher return, afterall, if you have no faith in the mother, why even invest in the first place.

Well, enough for today... just don't let opportunity passes by just because of our ignorance... if you dont' know its ok, but if you read this, don't say its not your luck if things turns out to be just what it has been preached.

New high... so how?...

2009-09-08T07:33:00.000-07:00

Well, stock markets in Asia are going to hit new high and good sentiments are everywhere... stocks are amazing giving returns to investors who believe in equity compared to the pathetic FD rates in the banks.... anyway, this is the time when people will start to feel the good vibes about stock market and many are often tempted to join the stock market rallyor at least try to earn some easy money for some people... bear in mind that when I say join it means putting more money into the market in hope of better return.

Now this is the right time for the existing people who already have a position in the stock market to lock in their gain and liquidate stocks to realize their profit. We have to be objective and be aware of our investment goal. Don't get carried away with greed as that is human's greatest enemy! Remember, things have reached the bottom and are picking up but is the consumer spending really picking up at equal rates? Do we see company revenue projection beginning to balloon drastically? Some sectors (e.g. service and electronics) especially those with huge customer in China probably yes,... but majority are in fact merely started to recover and the situation is really not that optimistic yet.

Don't get carried away with positive news without conducting a reality check yourself... its difficult to earn 30-50% per quarter on a consistent basis, but its very easy to lose that amount in a quarter of the time frame.... so always remember for every winning bet, there is someone losing on the other end... make sure you don't become a santa claus for this coming festive season... :)
Now you have been warn... its your choice to make the decision.... :)

What's brewing behind the recovering economy of Malaysia...

2009-08-26T02:47:00.000-07:00

This piece of news will determine whether the stock market will crash or continue to recover...
Imagine the how foreign investors would view this country... Malaysia might be labelled the most corrupted country if the PKFZ scandal ended up with the Malaysian leaders being indicted.
http://www.mysinchew.com/node/28568

I believe the people of Malaysia would support the truth as well, let's faced it now then let those unscrupulous leaders continue to rob Malaysians of their money... if this continue, don't be surprise one day this country is bankcrupt. Then all your hard earn money(especially those invested in stocks) and assets will be all gone...

Grow up or face extinction...

2009-08-26T02:43:00.000-07:00

Comments from a foreign writer Bryant on Mahathir's article : Kaki dalam Kasut where he says Chinese is the real master of Malaysia .
This article was written without fear or favour, and it is up to us to digest individually the truth of the matter, especially for all Malaysians (irrespective of race, colour, creed or religion)..........thanks to Alan Tan for sharing.

The highly respected Tun,
China is coming up, India is coming up, Vietnam is coming up and now even Russia is on the rise. In this flat world that is all wired up and regardless whether we are Malaysian Malay, Chinese or Indian, and if Malaysia does not progress, all of us would become history of this country! Without the Malay, Chinese could not do well in the country and without the Chinese, Malay would not do well. Both have to work together to bring up Malaysia and mitigate the ascute impact that is being brought about by the globalisation. For me, a true leader is someone who has the foresight that not only focus on one particular group in the country but take care of the future of everyone. A good leader is someone who know what is the biggest threat the country is facing and direct the people to fight off the threat. A leader is also someone who is impartial that has the ability to promote harmony in the country for a long period of time.
UMNO is a political looser that leads the country to nowhere. They do not understand what is going on the outside world. They have no clue where Malaysia will be in the next 30 years. With the 3 new superpowers, i.e Indian, China and Russia standing tall and high together with USA and the Europe Union, they do not know what kind of world it would be and how Malaysia is going to compete and share the ever smaller slice of cake of the world economy. They only know how to get the Malays to fight with other Non-Malay on tiny issues within Malaysia , while the two races know jolly well that the issues they are fighting are trivial and is totally self-satisfying. UMNO does not give a damn to how the poor Malay is going to live in the future and they do not care about the real benefits of the poor Malays. They only want the votes from them. The NEP is a good evidence on how they benefit the cronies, instead of the poor Malay. Despite all their despicable acts they are still in the power.
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The highly respected Tun,
As you are aware, the Malays control the rights to all the lands and all other natural resources in this country. They control all government institutions, GLC and State owned companies. The Malays dominate the lawmaking process in Malaysia ; The Malays control the decision making process in formulating the economy policies. The Malays own the largest national assets and the Malays are given shares in the public listed companies for free. The Malays have also been given all kind of priorities when it comes to buying properties, awarding of public contracts, tertiary education opportunities, awarding of scholarships and even getting a job in government departments. With all these privileges and rights enjoyed by the Malays, you are saying nothing has been done enough to help the Malays to catch up with other races, mainly the Chinese. Then what else should Malaysia do to satisfy the Malays? Did the Chinese seize or rob anything away from the Malays or all their wealth was a result of their hard work? If it is all due to their hard work, why do you say it is unfair? I don't quite get your point here.
May I humbly ask you what do you expect the Chinese to do if your so-called NEP did not achieve the desired result? Would the Malays be happy if the ethnic Chinese in this country do any of the followings:
- surrender their assets and hard earned money to the Malays unconditionally;- not to engage in any business activities;- not to score As in all sort of examinations;- not to make money that is more than the Malays are earning;- not to advance to higher education; or- renounce their citizenships and go back to China or migrate to some other countries?
I am a foreigner but I am surprised that your intention is to divide your own country. I think you are mainly targeting the Chinese. Frankly, tell us, what do you expect the Chinese to do in order to achieve what is so called "equality" meant by you?
Tun, after all these criticism you have against the present government, I feel that you are starting to loose your rationality on your arguments. You have run out of good reasons to convince us. I guess it could be due to your accumulating jealousy of Mr Lee Kuan Yew, your former counterpart in Singapore . But reality is always hard to accept. No matter how, you have to accept the fact that he is regarded the Father of Singapore but you are not regarded the Father of Malaysia; you have to accept the fact that Mr Lee is able to influence the government of Singapore until he the day he dies but you have not been able to influence the government from the moment you stepped down as PM. You must also accept the fact that he is still very popular on the world stage and a leader respected by many but you are not quite. Because of these jealousies, you are starting to accumulate imbalances in yourself that lead you to embark on a series of action to attack your successors. It is very obvious that you are not happy when your successors are more popular than you. Is there any good of doing that? What is your intention? Can't you take it easy? During your time, you criticised most of the developed countries especially the Western Countries out of jealousy and after stepping down as PM you criticise every single soul remained in the cabinet for not listening to you. When will you ever stop criticising any people? Can't you respect the decision of others?
Back to your recent blog, is there anything wrong with Chinese in this country? Did they seize or rob the money away from the Malays? Did they have the ability to come out with any policies to marginalise the Malays? Did they dominate the lawmaking process of this country? Did they formulate the economy policies in this country? Did they control the government departments in this country? Did they control the state owned companies and GLC in this country? Did they control the country's largest oil companies and banks? You know the answer right? Malays are the one who dominate the the lawmaking process of this country; Malays are the one that formulate the economy policies in this country that favours the Malays. Malays are the ones that control the government departments, state owned companies and GLC. Malays are the one the control the funds in this country. Malays are also the ones that control the largest oil companies and banking industry in this country. With all these rights enjoyed by the Malays, what else do you want the Chinese to do? Surrender their houses and savings and their wealth that they earned with their hard work to the Malays, for no reason? or ask all the Chinese to renounce their citizenship and go back to China ? Have you ever thought of after 30 years of implementing NEP, why it does not achieve the desired result? Don't forget under the NEP there are a series of policies that favors the Malays. The obvious ones would be the distributions of APs and awarding of contracts. If with all these policies, it still dose not give the Malay what they want, what else do you want the Chinese to do? Is the Chinese to be blamed because they are too hard working? Or the Malays to be blamed because they do not treasure the opportunities given? You know very well the NEP has been misused and it only benefits the cronies. So if you have designed NEP to only benefits the cronies, please don't say it is the problem of Chinese that NEP does not achieve its result. It has nothing to do with the Chinese but NEP and the Malay themselves.
This is a globalised world, Chinese and Malays should not be fighting against each other because Malaysia is competing with other countries. China used to be backward and lagging behind Malaysia but now they have caught up and have even surpassed Malaysia . Can we ask them to slow down their development? If they refuse to listen can we make a complaint to the United Nation that China is developing too fast and this is very unfair to Malaysia, which adapts a more a passive approach? Who gives you the right to prevent others from progressing? Who you think you are? This is a flat world (Obviously Tun did not read the book named "The World is Flat"). Don't be so narrow minded to only focus on the Chinese or Malay in Malaysia . We should now look at the world as a flat world. If Malaysia does not progress, no matter we are Malay or Chinese, we would be extinct one day!
Have a God-blessed day.

E&O bullish engulf...

2009-08-18T07:37:00.000-07:00

Will it break the RM1.35-1.36 resistance level? I believe there is a very bright chance that this will happen as long as the Chinese and US economies does not create a big concern about comsumer spending and the recovery rate of the world economy....

We're on the right track and speed towards economic recovery in my opinion and what we're going to see in the future is going to be a typical recovery trend... there is really no reason to be alarm just because some analysts post some comments but rather do your own analysis and gauge it yourself... breaking the RM1.56 in the near term is very possbile... stay alert on this one.

Follow up on IJMLand...

2009-08-12T09:41:00.000-07:00

This is an assessment of Toebear's earlier post on IJMLand that was published in May'09... At that time, it was trading at ~RM1.45 for the mother and RM0.45 for its warrant and the call is to buy its mother and even better is to buy the warrant. Today, the stock has since risen to RM1.83 and it warrant has reached a high of RM0.70 and that is more than 25% return for investing in mother share and more than 50% return for warrant. What a magnificent gain in a quarter!!!
That's why I like this blog........ :) while it may not have many posts, every posts it put up is worthy of every second I spent reading it.

keep it up Toebear...

E&O rally over?

2009-08-12T07:40:00.000-07:00

Well, we have seen E&O make significant come back in the month of Aug alone rising close to 25% from its level in early Aug. That's a spectacular return of investment for many who have this stock and certainly made many of them feel good.

With good response to its recent property launch, E&O is set to regain its glory days in the past.

While you may have a different opinion, I believe this stock will be RM2 at least come Jan 2010.

Having said so, its good to also take a look at it's warrants which will expire in somewhere in May 2011. With a strike price o RM1, this warrant is very much in money and will likely remain so until it expires... For every 2 sen the mother share gain, the warrant is set to gain 1.5 sen and I expect it to continue deep into Q4 2010.

Question now is has the run of this stock come to a halt? will it start to profit take its way down to below RM1? I think it is highly unlikely.... I feel there is still a final hurdle before we see the bear setting in... well, we'll see.... :)

BJTOTO...

2009-07-28T12:28:00.000-07:00

With quite an amount of news focusing mostly number forecasting companies such as MPHB (Magnum), BJToto, Tanjong via PMP.... one thing to note is the gov is not shy to reveal to public that they are in need of cash and that the fastest and the best way to increase its revenue is through sin tax mainly gaming or alternatively you can also call it gambling. While that is a separate issue, my main reason of this post is to highlight the potential short term movement for these companies...

Favourite to outperform the rest is still BJtoto... why, mainly because of its wide variety of games.... and its mega jackpots.... the rest are conventional 4D companies.... while magnum may introduce new games perhaps a jackpot type of game, it will take while before people starts to feel the ummph of the game and start buying on a consistent basis.... while excitement will be there, what matters most is the to get the volume to sustain and bjtoto has the edge and judging by the number of people frequenting their outlets and the market share, it certainly won't be affected eventhough the remaining 2 operators start to introduce more varieties to their current offerings.

Anyway with the huge dividend episode just went by, bjtoto is definitely set to regain its stock price after the adjustment... with today's closing, the stock certainly looks very positive to have a short term run up to RM4.68 at least.... while this is probable, do not that it will have to take place relatively fast before the stock market adjustment happens... so traders, may have to watch closely. On the long run, i expect bjtoto to hit past its Q1'08 high.

The Ten Commandments

2009-07-27T08:38:00.000-07:00

The Trader's Ten Commandments

We all know that losing money is a sin. It means you have done what you should not have done and you have left undone what you should have done. In such event, you must repent and in future obey the rules. Below are the ten rules I find interesting and very much relates to my personal guidelines and therefore I feel they live up to be called the ten commandments. The first rule is very much associated to Warren Buffet. :) Enjoy...

1) Thou shalt not lose any money - chances are you won't get it back.
2) Dont risk money when you do not have to - you can beat the market by not being in the market all the time. Consistently strive to improve the risk-return ratio.
3) You can beat any index or stocks by owning only a part of it - Its easier to idenfity the average than to spot the best.
4) When you do invest, only go for those with >50% probability even though it is not a certain outcome.
5) If you hold a position that is going wrong, cut it - always have an exit point ready and stick to it.
6) At all times, only go for strongest or relative strength trends or short only the weakest. - If unsure, dont trade.
7) Adopt a money management system that dynamically cut out losses, exploits an up trend and changes in unit size with respect to capital availability.
8) Always diversify - be reasonable as you don't want to end up having too much to manage.
9) Use methods with the lowest possible cost to trade - makes a good system better
10) Setup your affaird in a way that eliminates if not minimizes your tax burden - optimizes the system.

Courtesy of David Keller
"Breakthroughs in Technical Analysis"

KLCI prediction....

2009-07-23T20:36:00.000-07:00

Well, the KLCI market has been on the uptrend since mid of Mar'09 and has never look back since... the bull has been charging like there is no tomorrow since then and even though it hit some bumpy ride around June... that never really give it any problem to pull the CI into a higher territory. In any case, I would like to believe that the bear is still alive and has always been there so don't let the market fool you.

A ~36.5% gain in a quarter is amazing and certainly has put alot of feel good feeling about the market... however, Q3 is already here and traditionally Q3 tend to be a little soft and are usually the profit taking period. So those who have gain, its time to lock the gain and get the cold hard cash stored in your piggy bank.... opprtunities should be abundant for us to reload into the market for next round of gain... and when that happens, its going to be a big gain....

I'm putting here a copy of what my personal simulation model gave for the next 6 months.

Trade or fade...?

2009-07-02T09:30:00.000-07:00

While the PM has just announced a couple of measures attract foreign investment, the impact on stock market is nothing significant to remember by....

questions is everywhere whether now is the time to buy or perhaps wait a little longer for it to consolidate.. I wish someone can tell us that but lets face it, everyone has its own goal and in stock market, the base to trading is the different perception of value among investors.

If everyone share the same opinion, who's gonna buy from or sell to you? Another way of looking at it is, under normal circumstances where do you wanna position yourself?

anyway, back on the stock market in Malaysia its pretty much sad case of lack of liquidity.... had the govenment allow investors to short the market, it would be a different scenario...based on the current situation, I would think its best to sell and re-enter again.... few stocks that is worth stalking are probably, sapcres, ijmland, e&o, leader, genting, genm, uemland, saag, sunway.

In a nut shell, what I'm betting for the next few weeks starting from today is that things are gonna head south... so be prepared.. ;)

What's the status.......?

2009-06-15T09:01:00.000-07:00

Are we seeing a correction today?, certainly yes, from my perspective. Lack of news and direction forces investors to dump shares and lock in profits from recent run up. Well, from the data it seems both retailers and institutional investors are equally caught in the run up from ringgit standpoint.

Anyway, its better for the CI to take a break and build a new base before heading to the next level....

100-250% gain since end of last year is too much to keep as paper value and really its nothing to be surprised of that the CI retreated... traders need a break too.... well, get your profit and go for a vacation locally(keep your cash in the local market.. :))....+ there's H1N1 risks to board a plane...

so sit back reposition your portfolio and reidentify your targets for next phase of bull run.

Note:

Whether its bull or bear it all goes back to investor themselves that is their believe in the market value. It doesn't matter what you (as an individual) believe, its what the majority of the people out there believe that matters.... afterall, we just wanted to be on the right side at the right time.

SAAG

2009-06-01T09:21:00.000-07:00

One of my favourite...SAAG remains relatively attractive given its price and business nature....

cheap and remains a good buy for a return of at least 12% from my forecast in the next 9 months....

Another property stock I have to mention here is E&O since I personally owns this stock for a while now...and a couple of my friends are questioning why I don't talk about it..... well, we just can't have it all.... however, since they wants some comments, here goes....

I believe this stock is set to rise again to challenge its recent high of RM0.93 in a short run .... this is pure from trading standpoint the chart trend remains well supported at RM0.75 ... so I am of the opinion, the stock will challenge the RM1 mark in a quarter or two.... while some may think its conflict of interest for me to comment on E&O, and I normally don't comment on counters that I just bought.... because I have been accumulating E&O for a while now, that's why I don't wanna talk about it.

Anyway, feel free to comment.... afterall, you get to see it for yourself whether the claims I made here are true or not....

IJMLAND....

2009-05-11T22:54:00.000-07:00

Well, its been a while since I blogged about anything due to the self declared holiday to complete a personal project in life..... Thank God its completed....Anyway, many of us is well aware of the recent run up of KLCI from 850 all the way to 1028... and some people I know told me that they made some during this recovery but the next question will be what the impending market will look like and what stock should be traded to get the high value return?... As a typical trader, I can say there are many stocks to dump your money in... but the best counter to me is still the property counter especially the one who has the highest exposure to the northerm region mainly Penang island.... mainly because of the 2nd bridge potential and the purchasing power of the people in the state.

There are a few names to mention. SP Setia, IJMland, Mah Sing. From the info I have, I find IJMLand as the best bet for the highest return in the next coming 1 year. A few reason though, strategic project plan, quality product, exceptional brand image, proven track record and most of all, stock price is affordable and the number of floating shares are limited not until IJM Corp trim their holding further to below 65%.

Recent rally in the market has caused the stock price to double its value taking yesterday's closing price as end price and I believe while this stock has more potential and will make it to the RM2 ringgit mark in a year time.... as we see the market consolidate, its time for traders to catch a cheap entry price.... for those who has higher risk appetite, IJMLand-WA is a much better tool for trading.... long this stock and reap a big gain in the future....

Malaysian government a laughing stock yet again!

2009-02-05T17:50:00.000-08:00

Well, those who follow the news of this bolehland must be shaking their heads and for investors wannabe I believe this is a clear signal for them to take a step back and think of somewhere else more stable than this country.

First, BN is taking the support of 3 independent candidates or "frogs" to toppple the Pakatan Rakyat government even though knowing clearly that 2 of the frogs are currently being investigated for corruption which involves bribes and accepting sexual favours from prostitutes for a land project amounting to RM180mil.

Questions is...

1) Why would the 2 cross over to support BN? What objective? What benefit and etc...

The answer is money, money and money... anything else is fucking bullshit.

2) Would the cross over to BN gives the people of Perak state a better development and welfare compared to Pakatan? (Remember the people voted for Pakatan to be the government)

3) How could 2 elected candidates went for election as a candidate of party A and then after that jump to another party to form another government??... yet the BN politicans in this country calls this democracy and is inline with the constitution?? Hypothetically speaking... if you buy a can of longan and when you reach home, you noticed the can of longan just turn into a can of lychee? What the fuck!?...

If BN wants to deny using money to induce these so call people representatives to turn into frog and cross over to support them, they are just being silly...

While the people of Perak states are violated of their rights.... BN stand to lose even more for...

These are the negative side...

1) People now believe that the Perak govenment is bought over by dumping people's tax money to these 3 representatives to buy them over.

2) The people of Malaysia will have a stronger confirmation that corruption exist to the very top of this country's leadership..... its a no brainer

3) The next election to come, BN is very likely be defeated.

4) At current economic situation, instead of doing what's necessary to help the people of this country, the leaders in the government are wasting resources and time for personal gain at the people's expense.

I pay huge tax for every ringgit of what I make in this country you bastards!!!!....

May God strikes those involved in stealing the people's right, tax money and those who earn's haram income for neglecting their job as elected leaders, since we pay them large amount of money to run the country to HELL!!!.... May God's fury come down upon these bastards real soon.

Let us all pray....

What say you?...

2008-12-12T00:34:00.000-08:00

US stock market future heads for a dive tonight as the bail out plan for GM and Chrysler was halted by US senate.Main reason to the failure of the US14bil bailout was rather perculiar from my perspective... why so??Simple, the unionized autoworkers (UAW) are unwilling to accept a reduction in wages starting from next year but prefer to do it somewhere in 2011.This is how it works....People who are desperate for help don't have much right to negotiate the rule to be honest...This is the people's tax money we're talking about and these people are still living in the state of denial by believeing that they are too big to fail...

Now answer this,
1) Is Lehman Brothers not big?
2) Did AIG take the loan even though the Fed set a ridiculously high interest rates on the bail out loan?

The answer is yes,... and frankly... without the big 3, the japanese car makers are still there.If the UAW still insists on not having any paycut, I tell you, GM and Chrysler will have to get the bail out money from somewhere or just opt for bankruptcy and liquidate their company and get out of the business cause these people just don't evolve.... the management and the employees are like dinosaours living in today's world... they cannot accept the fact that they are no longer indisposable....
My advise, as long as the pay cut is not ridiculously huge to the extend that it affects the people's ability to survive and sustain the economy (which is the ultimate factor for the economy to recover) i say just take the deal and move on...having a smaller income is better than losing your job at this difficult time.... be realistic!